Premier League Big Match Focus: Back an 11/4 Bet Builder in Liverpool v Newcastle

• Salah one shy of milestone

• Newcastle struggling defensively

• Read about Betfair's 90 minute payout offer here

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Liverpool v Newcastle
Monday, 20:00
Sky Sports Main Event

When Liverpool and Newcastle met back in August, both teams were finding out what the season ahead might have in store, but the return fixture comes with things much clearer.

Liverpool's victory at St James' Park was a memorable one. Jürgen Klopp's team came back from a man and a goal down to snatch victory, with Darwin Núñez scoring both of the visitors' goals.

Since then, Klopp's men have kicked on and sit top after Arsenal's defeat on Thursday night, while Eddie Howe's Magpies have found things much tougher. Newcastle have lost six of their last seven games in all competitions, including a Boxing Day setback at home to struggling Nottingham Forest, to leave Howe under pressure.

Reds have the upper hand

You have to go all the way back to 2015 for the last time Newcastle beat Liverpool in the Premier League. Since losing his first meeting in December of that year, with future Reds star Gini Wijnaldum on target, Klopp has overseen 10 wins and four draws and Liverpool are 2/51.40 to win this time around.

That run includes a league double last season, with both meetings full of drama. Fábio Carvalho scored a stoppage-time winner in the Anfield meeting, while Nick Pope's red card in a St James' Park defeat would ultimately keep the England international goalkeeper out of the Carabao Cup final.

With Pope out injured this time, stand-in stopper Martin Dúbravka is chasing his first away clean sheet in the league since a victory at Norwich in April 2022. Newcastle will need the Slovakia star on top form if they are to end a run of 27 trips to Anfield without a victory - a winless run second only to Everton away at Chelsea when it comes to Premier League match-ups - and the visitors are 11/26.50 to win on Monday.

Fortress Anfield

Newcastle won their last New Year's Day meeting with Liverpool, with Laurent Robert scoring the only goal of the game in a 2003 clash. As established, though, it's been a different story at Liverpool's home ground, with the Magpies not the only visitors to struggle.

Liverpool's last 21 Premier League games at Anfield have brought 16 home wins and five draws. The Reds have only lost one of their last 51 on home soil, too, with Leeds' Crysencio Summerville scoring a late away winner in November 2022.

If Newcastle want something to cling onto, though, they might look at the last two Liverpool home games. Klopp's team were held by both Manchester United and Arsenal, though they followed those draws by winning at Burnley on Boxing Day.

On top of the recent slow going, Liverpool have started new calendar years slowly of late. They lost at Brentford to kick off January 2023, while 2022 began with a draw at Chelsea and 2021 began with a 1-0 loss at Southampton.

Liverpool v Newcastle prediction

Mohamed Salah scored his 200th Liverpool goal earlier this season against Crystal Palace and another against Newcastle would bring up 150 for the club in the Premier League for their top scorer. Salah is 10/111.91 to score at any time and become just the fifth player (and the first Liverpool player) to score 150 in the competition for one club.

At the other end of the field, Anthony Gordon is looking to become the first Newcastle player to score home and away against Liverpool in one season since Alan Shearer in 1999-2000. A goal at Anfield would mean a lot to the winger, who didn't score in any of his four Merseyside derbies as an Everton player.

While Newcastle have scored in all 10 of their home league games this season, they have drawn blanks in nine games on the road. Even if Newcastle score, though, they'll have to contend with the fact that Liverpool have a record 10 come-from-behind wins against them in the Premier League.

We have our eye on the Bet Builder market for this game, and it's a chance for Salah to get on the scoresheet after failing to do so in the reverse fixture. Liverpool to win, Salah to score and both teams to score can be backed at 11/43.75.

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