Liverpool v Chelsea: Back the draw and forget about the classics from yesteryear

It's fair to say that Chelsea haven't exactly been thrilling to watch of late but that is exactly how Thomas Tuchel wants it. For now, at least.

Since taking over the reins at Stamford Bridge the German has quickly settled on a 3-4-3 formation that on paper looks progressive but more accurately errs towards the conservative with two of Jorginho, Kante and Kovacic on protective duties throughout. It's a system that has certainly been highly effective but entertaining it is not.

Even so, it's a carapace that has conceded just twice in 13 and a half hours and the Blues boss will be delighted with such parsimony that suggests solid foundations have already been put in place. What will frustrate him immensely, however, is the persistent passing up of chances at the other end and this despite boasting a plethora of attacking talent that is the envy of all.

It's a wastefulness that puts some doubt on their top four credentials but perhaps that is misleading because simply put, it is entirely plausible that Tuchel's Chelsea will continue to be a difficult team to break down but much less plausible that at least one of Werner, Ziyech, Abraham, or Pulisic won't start finding the net with regularity between now and the season's end.

And maybe that's all they need in order to over-take an excellent West Ham side they are currently on the shoulder of and secure one of the lucrative spots, a feat that seemed a very tough ask as recently as late-January.

For this Tuchel deserves a great deal of praise. He has barely got his loafers under the desk at Cobham and already his team is merely looking for the finishing touches.

Chelsea are 10/11 to finish top four

Draw all over it

Should the Blues ultimately nail down a Champions League place it won't only be the Hammers of course who miss out: Liverpool too will likely find themselves on the periphery; a situation that would have been unimaginable just a few short months ago.

All of which makes this Thursday's encounter at Anfield a game of real consequence.

If that is an obvious statement, it's made because the importance of this fixture could very well have a bearing on the outcome. Liverpool have lost their last four fixtures at home and will be hell-bent on not making it five. Furthermore, a single point deficit is manageable for the Reds but to trail by four will place enormous pressure on a stuttering side with just over a quarter of the campaign to go.

Therefore, this is a game Klopp's men would love to win but absolutely cannot afford to lose.

Chelsea would also surely take a point and then we get to that impenetrable defence of theirs and an attack that is struggling for prolificacy: from open play they have scored every 115 minutes since Tuchel took charge.

When all of these factors are joined up it amounts to a stalemate.

There is another consideration too. That both sides are card-carrying members of the traditional 'top six'.

Given the circumstances the 5/2 on a draw jumps out as tremendous value

From hype to anti-climax

Chelsea's goalless encounter with Manchester United at the weekend prompted many to conclude that top six battles aren't what they used to be. These days it is common for the elite to cancel each other out leading to drab affairs and few chances.

But what about the 6-1 at Old Trafford, replied this theory's detractors. What about City beating Liverpool 4-1?

Okay, let's crunch the numbers.

Assuming the traditional top six to be Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Spurs - apologies to high-flying Leicester, West Ham and Everton - this sextet have played each other on 22 occasions this season. Six of these much-hyped clashes have ended score-less.

Whereas, from the 30 games last season we saw precisely no 0-0s.

This goes a long way to explaining the disparity in goals scored (with over 3 per game last season decreasing to 2.09 this time out) and on closer inspection the comparisons just get worse because there have already been four times more 1-0s than last season. As for games where at least one team didn't score that number has rocketed from 36.6% in 2019/20 to 63.6%.

Interesting, there has also been a rise in away wins from these top six match-ups with a perfectly normal 23.3% now jumping to 36.3%.

That last aspect aside then, the stats have it: top six battles are not what they used to be.

Back the 3/1 available for under 1.5 goals

Tuchel's trauma

Which is a great shame because this fixture so easily conjures up memories of ferociously competed title bouts and Champions League ties from yesteryear and the visitors will be only too happy to join in with the reverie having lost just three times at Anfield in their last ten trips.

The same however absolutely cannot be said of Thomas Tuchel.

In his managerial career to date the coach has taken two different sides to Merseyside and departed on both occasions bereft from being on the wrong end of a topsy-turvy classic.

In September 2018 Tuchel's PSG lost a Champions League group game 3-2 courtesy of a last-minute Roberto Firmino winner. Two years earlier his Dortmund side came unstuck when Dejan Lovren thumped home a Kop-end header with moments to spare.

On the latter loss the gob-smacked gaffer said: "It was not logical. I can give you a description, but not an explanation'.
As if we needed further cause to believe that Chelsea will seek to keep things tight this week.

21/10 for no goals during the first half is a decent shout if it's cagey from the off

Wait and see on the Reds

Jurgen Klopp's champions have been saved until last because it really feels like we're in a wait-and-see situation with them right now.

It is first necessary to accept Liverpool are not out of the woods of their crisis just yet, for all their return to form against Sheffield United on Sunday evening. The Blades have lost ten of their 13 home fixtures this term and will no doubt lose more in the weeks to come.

It did bode well however that the Reds' formerly formidable forward-line hit the target in exactly 50% of their shots taken at the weekend, an increase on a 34.9% average from their previous five games, while genuine encouragement can be found in the expected return from injury of Fabinho and Diogo Jota. Both players are set to feature and with Milner and Keita also back in the frame Liverpool are beginning to regain a familiar look to them.

What would help them substantially is if they also regained their art for starting games brightly: in nine of their opening 15 league games Liverpool scored inside thirty minutes. The earliest they have scored in their last ten games is the 45th minute.

Should Chelsea get off the mark first head into the in-play market and back the hosts to equalize. Now if only there was offers available for this game not being pretty...