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Leicester v Southampton Tips: Vardy on the scoresheet in goal-filled game

Jamie Pacheco
21 May 2022
4 min read

Jamie Vardy has scored four goals in his last three games.

Leicester City vs Southampton
Sun 22 May, 16:00

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Final day of the season specialist Jamie Vardy can add to his goal tally in what should be an open and entertaining game, says Jamie Pacheco.

"He’s started three games in the PL since returning to full fitness and scored two, two and then drew a blank; four goals in three starts a good reminder of what Leicester missed in his absence."

Vardy still the main man

A current position of ninth is probably at least two or three places lower than they would have liked to be this season, although they'll be proud of their efforts in Europe, narrowly missing out on a place in the inaugural final of the Conference League. It needed a fully-motivated Roma side at full strength under Jose Mourinho to knock them out so no disgrace in losing to that lot.

As for the league, it's worth remembering that they were without star man Jamie Vardy for at least a third of the season. He may be 35 but he's still the one who makes things happen upfront and remains their best source of goals.

He hasn't seemed to lose his pace and is as lively as ever but at his age there will inevitably be more and more injuries coming his way and so far the likes of Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka haven't really been able to step up to the plate when he's been unavailable.

His return from injury and the excellent form of James Maddison coincided with a strong finish to the campaign, where they thrashed Norwich and Leicester and got a good draw at Chelsea on Thursday night.

Bar Wilfred Ndidi, everyone is fit and available.

Mediocre season from the Saints

In Southampton's case, 15th place is also a slightly disappointing place to be in the table though at least they were never in any danger of being relegated.

Skipper James Ward-Prowse was probably their best player this season, scoring nine goals and providing a further five assists.

Leicester City

Southampton

Leicester City 4 1 Southampton
Chelsea 1 1 Leicester City
Watford 1 5 Leicester City
Leicester City 3 0 Norwich City
Leicester City 1 2 Everton
Roma 1 0 Leicester City

Leicester City 4 1 Southampton
Southampton 1 2 Liverpool
Brentford 3 0 Southampton
Southampton 1 2 Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion 2 2 Southampton
Burnley 2 0 Southampton

Leicester City vs Southampton Sunday 22 May, 16:00

Full stats

Che Adams had a decent season with seven goals but they understandably found Danny Ings a hard man to replace and they also weren't as solid at the back as in previous campaigns.

Ward-Prowse is sort of their modern-day Matt Le Tissier.

James Ward-Prowse England.jpg

So it will be interesting to be seen if he remains at Southampton as a sort of demi-God for the rest of his career or makes the step up to a team who's always playing European football.

They've had a poor finish to the campaign, losing their last three and four of their last five.

Should Leicester be odds-on?

Leicester are 1.9210/11, pretty much what you'd expect them to be.

They're higher up in the table, in far better form and have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League games at home.

But it's not all the stats are in the Foxes' favour.

The Saints have won two of their last three games on the road against them, while Leicester haven't won their final game of the season in any of the last six seasons since thrashing QPR 5-1 back in 2014-15.

Despite that, I'd be happy to go with the Brendan Rogers' men at anything odds-against but that price is a little short for my liking.

It's 4.03/1 the Southampton win and 4.216/5 the draw.

Stats say goals are a near-certainty

One of the fun things about the final game of the season is that there tend to be a lot more goals in those games than there would normally be. That's especially the case with sides who don't have much to play for, which is the case here.

And that's more the case with Leicester than most.

Brendan Rodgers, Leicester.jpg

In fact, with an average of 3.93 goals per game in their final match of the campaign, no team has a higher average of goals-per-game on the last day of the season than them, among teams to have played in the Premier League across at least five seasons.

Stats from Opta.

So that bodes well for would-be backers of over 2.5 goals.

But there's further evidence to suggest that we should get three or more goals here. It's paid out in 72.2% of the Saints' away games this season and 61.1% of Leicester's home games.

Then again, the layers are well aware of this, which is why overs is just 1.68/13.

The slightly more adventurous punter might be interested in the 2.568/5 about over 3.5 goals instead.

Vardy, Maddison and Evans all potential goalscorer bets

That man Vardy has made the most of his return from injury.

He's started three games in the PL since returning to full fitness and scored two, two and then drew a blank; four goals in three starts a good reminder of what Leicester missed in his absence.

And Vardy is something of a final-day specialist.

With six goals in the final day of the Premier League season, only Harry Kane (eight) has got more from among players who are still active. Again, that was Opta.

He also notched a hat-trick in that infamous 9-0 win to Leicester from a couple of seasons ago. The 4/5 he scores one here is perfectly reasonable.

Interestingly, Jonny Evans is something of a specialist when it comes to scoring against this particular opposition. He scored in both of the last two matches he was up against the Saints, a 1-1 draw last season and a 2-2 stalemate this campaign.

Based on those numbers, the 10/1 on him scoring here looks big and you'll probably get twice those odds over on the Exchange. The downside is that he's got just the one goal all season so hasn't been finding the net recently.

And at 15/8 you can back the Foxes' other in-form man.

James Maddison has scored in each of his last three matches and has a good record against Southampton himself. He has three in his last six against them including one in that 2-2 draw earlier this season.

James Maddison claps 1280.jpg