Leicester v Crystal Palace: Zaha looks the path to profit

• Zaha has great goalscoring record v Leicester
• Right-backs often carded v Palace flier
• Andersen set-piece value at 20/1

It may well pay for punters to focus on Wilfried Zaha in Saturday lunchtime's Premier League game.

Thanks to his pace and dribbling ability, the Crystal Palace forward has long been one of the league's most fouled players, while he's started the 2022/23 campaign in fine form, finding the net with regularity.

It is these aspects worth noting in our search for profit.

Zaha loves a fox hunt

First of all, Zaha is 3.412/5 to score at any time and that looks worth an interest.

He's already netted four goals in seven games this season and while Palace haven't set the world on fire, they've arguably performed better than their position of 15th suggests.

OK, they have yet to win on their travels but they've drawn at both Liverpool and Newcastle (Zaha scoring at Anfield) and led 2-0 at Manchester City before losing a game the Ivory Coast international missed.

It's fair to say this game looks easier than any of those given the way Leicester have started the campaign.

The Foxes have lost seven of nine so far, their only win coming against their fellow bottom-two side, Nottingham Forest.

Most significant have been their defensive woes with a whopping 24 goals conceded already and I've therefore no interest in backing the hosts at 2.47/5. For the record, Palace are 3.5551/20 shots to win the game.

It's certainly a backline that Zaha should be relishing having a go at.

Even if Leicester were defending well, Zaha would probably be approaching this game licking his lips.

He's scored in six of his last nine games against Leicester, including in four of his last five at the King Power Stadium, while his total of eight goals against the Foxes is the highest of his career versus any single opponent.

His side's biggest goal threat, up against the league's worst defence, Zaha is worth backing to score at 3.412/5.

Foul play looks worthwhile

The other aspect mentioned is how often Zaha is fouled - and that results in bookings for opponents.

Zaha has started on the left wing in six games so far this season and in three of those, the opposing right-back has been carded. And that's part of a much longer trend, one which usually sees the card awarded for a deliberate tug of the shirt or a tactical foul with Zaha getting away from his marker.

Here he's likely to be up against Timothy Castagne.

The Belgian isn't a player who regularly picks up cards (although it's worth noting his last PL card came for a foul on Allan Saint-Maximin) and neither is referee Andy Madley a man who goes to his book often.

Yet Zaha's characteristics mean I'm happy to still enter the 'shown a card' market - and those aforementioned 'negatives' mean we're getting a tasty Sportsbook price of 13/2 for Castagne to be booked.

It won't matter who the ref is if Zaha is able to beat his man and is then tugged back - that's simply a card every day of the week.

Those odds look worth a small play.

20/1 Andersen looks big

There's another big-odds selection worth chancing too.

Leicester's defensive issues have arguably been at their peak when forced to defend set pieces and it's no surprise that their set-play expected goals against (SP xGA) figure is in the top five.

In terms of actual goals conceded, only Forest have let in more from set pieces than Leicester's five.

My eye is therefore caught by the 20/1 being dangled about Joachim Andersen scoring for the second time this season.

Palace don't win that many corners but they should still get opportunities to get free kicks into the box given they are the league's second most-fouled side.

Leicester's vulnerability from such situations makes Andersen's 'to score' price simply too big.

Bet Builder suggestions

For those putting Bet Builders together, both teams to score looks a solid staple.

It's landed in seven of Leicester's nine games - as well as conceding 24, they've scored 15 which isn't what you'd expect from a team bottom of the table.

For Palace, the equivalent stat is six of eight - also impressive.

Alternative ways to back Zaha include 4/5 about him having 3+ shots, something he's managed in four of seven games this season.

As for Andersen, he's 13/10 to have at least one shot. He's done this in three of his last six in the Premier League and had two shots in last week's win over Leeds.

Opta fact

Since the start of last season, no side has dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League than Leicester (35, including 14 this season).

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