All stats suggest Brighton will get exactly one goal in this game but it's unlikely to save them from another defeat, says Jamie Pacheco...
"But I can’t see the Foxes getting more than four against a reasonable defence nor can I see Brighton scoring more than one, so I prefer the 4/1 Leicester win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1."
Leicester v Brighton
Sunday December 13, 19:15
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Great start given the circumstances for Foxes
Leicester really needed that win at Sheffield United last weekend because it was their first in four across two league and two Europa League matches. Soundly beaten by Liverpool and the victims of a shock defeat at home to Fulham, they had also drawn at Braga and lost away at Zorya before the usual suspect that is Jamie Vardy pounced on a rare chance in that Sheff Utd match at the end and that was that.
That puts them up to fourth and with a relatively decent run coming up, they could easily still be in the top four at the end of the year. It's a particularly good effort given that they've been missing (and will continue to miss them) in Ricardo Pereira, Caglar Soyuncu and Timothy Castagne three first-choice defenders.
Goals a problem, as usual
Four draws, a win and two defeats from your last seven may not sound fantastic but when beating the drop is your priority as per usual, it's not bad at all. Especially when you consider those two defeats were against Tottenham and an in-form Southampton.
As per usual, Brighton's problem is scoring goals. In those seven games they didn't score more than once in any of them, although they did admittedly score one in six of them.
That's not a problem that's going to be fixed anytime soon. I'm not a huge fan of Neal Maupay and Danny Wellbeck is probably just happy to be fit and playing Premier League football; it would be a bit much to expect him to be scoring freely at this level after how little football he's played over the last couple of years.
The one who's really impressed me at Brighton this year is Tariq Lamptey, the wing-back. There's not much of him but he's quick, tricky, loves getting forward, can cross the ball well and has even scored already this season. What more could you want from a wing-back?
Opta stats say different things
As happens from time to time, the Opta stats paint very different pictures of what might happen here.
Having never lost in six matches against Brighton in the Premier League you might be eyeing up a home win at 2.111/10 or at least a lay of Brighton at 4.03/1. After all, the Seagulls have beaten Leicester just once in the midlands in their last eight attempts.
But then Opta also point out that the Foxes have lost four of their last six at home, so do you really want to be taking just better than evens on a side with that recent home record? No, me neither.
Of course, stats aren't the be-all-and-end-all but the more important point is that I don't like any of the three outcomes at the prices. The draw is 3.613/5.
Odds of 2.111/10 on Leicester don't do it for me on the match winner market but there's a 4/1 shot that's a great alternative to that.
We've already discussed that Brighton got exactly one goal in six of their last seven, while Leicester haven't kept any clean sheets in their last four.
I do think Leicester will win this and you can get 11/5 on Leicester and over 2.5 goals and it's 3/1 that Leicester can win with both teams scoring. But I can't see the Foxes getting more than four against a reasonable defence nor can I see Brighton scoring more than one, so I prefer the 4/1 Leicester win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1.
One of the reasons I'm no fan of Maupay is that he keeps missing penalties. He missed one at the back end of last season that almost proved very costly and another against Liverpool this season. If I were a manager, it would be two strikes and you don't take any more penalties.
As it happens, he was injured when they were awarded a second one in that Liverpool game and then another in a home defeat to Southampton on Monday. On both occasions, Pascal Gross, a 13/2 chance to score in this one, showed him how it's done. Maupay is a far shorter 21/10 to score.
By the way, that's three penalties in Brighton's last two games and two in Leicester's last four in the league. It's 13/8 we get a penalty in the game, 7/2 that Leicester score one and 14/1 that Brighton miss one; not a bad bet if Maupay has his way and takes the next one after all.
If you fancy a same-game multi-bet, a Leicester win, with Vardy getting on the scoresheet and both teams netting pays 5.06. You can easily see all three happening.
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JAMIE PACHECO'S 2020-21 PREMIER LEAGUE P AND
Points wagered: 19
P and L: -0.15.