Leicester v Aston Villa: Foxes look value to add another home win

Late slips costing Leicester points

Leicester emerged with just a single point in their last two games but they will be kicking themselves that it wasn't four.

The Foxes controlled the match at Newcastle but saw a 1-1 draw turn into a 2-1 defeat in injury-time.

And they were 1-0 up at Goodison Park on Wednesday night but again conceded in the 90th minute to watch three points become one.

It doesn't particularly matter with the Foxes in ninth but there's nothing more frustrating for a manager, fan or punter than when their team can't hold on for a win or draw.

Leicester's big priority this season is now the Europa Conference League after they made it through to the semi-finals with a 2-1 win at PSV.

In that one, Leicester scored goals in the 77th and 88th minutes so they do have it in them to finish strongly.

But back to the original problem and in this exact fixture last season, Ross Barkley hit a 90th-minute winner to give Villa a 1-0 win.

Villa looking to arrest slump

Aston Villa have had plenty of time to stew having not played since April 9th.

That was a 4-0 home spanking at the hands of Spurs, a result that condemned them to a fourth straight Premier League defeat.

Three top-flight wins on the spin prior to that had lifted them to 36 points but, technically, they need a few more yet to ensure safety.

As someone who struggles to shake off defeats, Steven Gerrard won't have enjoyed the lengthy break since the Tottenham game so he'll be chomping at the bit to try and get Villa back to winning ways.

In the first meeting this season, Villa hit back from 1-0 down to to win 2-1 via a brace from Ezri Konsa. That's just one of five home wins this season.

They've won six on the road and yet lost the other 10. It means Villa been defeated more times on their travels than Burnley and Watford.

Leicester surprise underdogs so cash in

I have to admit to being surprised by the match market odds on first viewing. Leicester are the underdogs at 2.9215/8 while Aston Villa are 2.6613/8 and The Draw 3.55/2.

It's basically due to Brendan Rodgers' men playing Roma in the Europa Conference League on Thursday but that's five days after this one and Leicester have a strong squad. In other words, I think the Roma angle is being overplayed and I'd rather focus on home advantage.

The Foxes are clearly a better side on their own soil having won eight at home and just three on the road. That tally of eight includes victories in each of their last three: against Crystal Palace, Brentford and Leeds. All were by single-goal margins.

Backing the Leicester win seems a straightforward course of action although I'm going to beef it up further by building in an Aston Villa goal too.

Five of the Foxes' home wins have come without a clean sheet so I'll go Leicester to win and Both Teams to Score at 5.59/2.

Leicester have scored and conceded in seven of their last eight matches and this bet would have landed in all three of their wins during that run so it makes sense.

Barnes worth a bet if starting

Rodgers shuffles his team a lot so it's hard to predict a line-up with that Roma game on the horizon.

But if Harvey Barnes does play I'd want to get him onside.

The youngster was on hand to slot home Leicester's opener at Goodison Park while he has an outstanding record in this fixture having netted four goals in four Premier League games against the Villans.

Adding in another goal for the attacker in the Bet Builder and we get Barnes to score anytime, Leicester win and Both Teams to Score at around 9.89/1.

Opta stat

Aston Villa have lost their last four Premier League matches, last losing five in a row in October and November under Dean Smith. If they lose this match, it would be the second time this season a side has lost five in a row under two different managers, along with Norwich (Dean Smith and Daniel Farke).