Leicester v Arsenal: Bank on Barnes to keep Foxes on track

Brendan Rodgers may not get it right in Europe but he can guide Leicester to another big Premier League win this weekend
Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers

Leicester have a superb record after European ties and Harvey Barnes can help them take victory over Arsenal on Sunday, says Dave Tindall...

"Barnes continues to flourish and has netted in four of his last five home Premier League games."

1pt Harvey Barnes to score anytime at 3.7511/4

Leicester v Arsenal
Sunday, 12:00
Sky Sports Main Event

Leicester looking to bounce back from Euro exit

Leicester's fans were pretty upset by their team's exit from Europe in midweek. And rightly so after a shock 2-0 home loss to Slavia Prague at the King Power Stadium.

However, Liverpool and Celtic fans know all too well that Rodgers has a history of messing up in Europe.

Indeed, this was his fifth straight exit over two legs in Europa League knockout ties, the first with Leicester after two each with the Reds and the Hoops.

While that's disappointing, Leicester's Premier League position is not. The Foxes have 49 points - the same as second-placed Manchester United - and are six clear of Chelsea in fifth.

They're just 1.392/5 for a Top 4 finish and go into this one having banked 10 points in their previous four Premier League games.

Throw in an FA Cup clash with Man Utd to look forward to in three weeks' time and these are good times for the men in blue and white.

Gunners given Euro boost

In contrast to Leicester, Arsenal received a welcome lift in Europe on Thursday after securing a 4-3 aggregate win over Benfica thanks to a 3-2 victory at home.

That came after a poor run of three defeats and two draws in their previous six games in all competitions. Indeed, some were even suggesting Mikel Arteta was only a couple more losses away from being under serious pressure for his job.

If that seems alarmist, sitting in the bottom half of the table after 25 games of the season is simply not good enough for the Gunners. They've suffered 11 defeats already and managed a paltry 31 goals.

There's one other glaring difference between Arsenal and Leicester and it can be found when looking at their record after European matches.

Arsenal have lost six out of seven after being in European action; Leicester have won six of their seven. That's a startling stat and one that probably shouldn't be ignored.

Leicester appeal at the odds

Given those contrasting records after European games, the 2.6413/8 about Leicester suddenly looks particularly appealing. In fact, it probably would have anyway.

Arsenal are 2.982/1 to return south with all three points while The Draw is 3.45.

In historical head-to-heads, Leicester have won four and drawn one of the last six top-flight meetings while winning the last three home PL fixtures 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1.

A plus for Arsenal is that they won at the King Power earlier in the season, claiming a 2-0 victory in the EFL Cup.

Goal markets balanced

It's virtually a pick 'em in the 2.5 Goals market. Overs is 1.981/1 and Unders 1.9620/21.

On very recent meetings, Unders deserves to be favourite as the last four have all featured fewer than three goals. It's easy to see goals though, so it's not a market that appeals.

Both teams to Score is just 1.748/11.

In-form frontmen can land big Same Game Multi

It's fairly easy to build a big-priced Same Game Multi without trying to force anything too much.

Harvey Barnes continues to flourish and has netted in four of his last five home Premier League games so gets a click at 11/4.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is scoring again and has seven in his last seven. True, they've all been at home but confidence is key for strikers and I expect he'll start netting them again on the road. He got the winner at Old Trafford and is a decent price here at 9/5.

I think the hosts will have enough to get it done so I'll play the Same Game Multi treble of Leicester to win, Barnes to score and Aubameyang to score at a hefty 28.45.

Barnes, who should be fresh after only playing the last 30 minutes against Slavia Prague, is also worth an anytime scorer punt on his own at that 11/4. In fact, that's my best bet here.

Opta Stat

Arsenal have won just 14.3% of their Premier League matches at the King Power Stadium (1/7) - among stadiums at which they've played at least five Premier League games, only at Hillsborough (12.5%) and Old Trafford (13.8%) do they have a lower win ratio in the competition.

Staked: 60.50pts
Returned: 31.32pts
P/L: -29.18pts

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