Will the Spurs shock wear off in time for Sunday?
Leicester will still be reeling in shock following one of the most dramatic moments in Premier League history on Wednesday night after throwing away a 2-1 lead up to 94 minutes, only to lose 2-3 following Steven Bergwijn's heroics. The in-running story alone threw up some staggering numbers with £869 traded on the Foxes to win at 1.011/100, £66,482 matched on the draw at 1.011/100 and Antonio Conte's side hit 999/1 for £28. Wild celebrations in the ground, and online.
A night of losers and winners, and I feel for those that backed the Double Chance on Leicester, and likewise the layers of the top shelf price. We've all been there in terms of late stoppage time goals against us, but two?!
It was a brilliant game however, matched by the glories that Twitter threw up. Having met commentator Rob Daly a couple of times, perhaps I enjoyed the clip with him the most. It was also a new top flight record as the goals made history as the latest time a team has been behind before winning a Premier League match. Ninety-four minutes and 52 seconds to be precise.
Rodgers has seen his team slip to 10th in the table and are behind Brighton to the tune of four points.
According to Opta; Leicester have only lost three of their 17 home league games against Brighton (W11 D3), most recently a 4-1 loss in April 2014, so at least there is good news for Foxes fans in the opening few paragraphs. Daniel Amartey is back to strengthen the defensive options for the hosts following Ghana's early exit from the African Cup Of Nations. Kelechi Iheanacho, Wilfred Ndidi, and Papy Mendy however are still involved and Jamie Vardy and Jonny Evans remain out.
A good point against Chelsea but another Seagulls draw
Brighton continue to frustrate and delight, and Tuesday's 1-1 draw against Chelsea at the Amex was a snapshot of how maddening they can be. That's not a churlish statement by any means, but more often than not, the Albion control games, are dominant for long spells, and yet struggle to put teams away. A point against the Champions League holders shouldn't be sniffed at, but that was a game they could have won.
They registered an xG process of 0.78 to Chelsea's 0.59, although a day later Fulham nearly hit a 10.0 figure on the xG. Unheard of. Adam Webster played a starring role for the Seagulls in keeping Romalu Lukaku quiet for much of the game, and even had to the decency to score his own goal.
The draw meant Brighton are now unbeaten in each of their past three Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top three (D3), having lost 17 of their previous 22 such games (W3 D2). The progress has been excellent and at times they are excellent to watch. But they need to score more and convert the draws.
Manager Graham Potter will be missing for Sunday due to testing positive for Covid-19. Assistant boss Billy Reid will take charge and he was also on media duties on Friday and said: "We've made ourselves hard to beat in the last six or seven games and there was belief we could beat Chelsea but going behind and coming back was commendable."
Shane Duffy and Adam Lallana are ruled out, but Lewis Dunk has a chance to feature.
Brighton have lost just one of their 10 Premier League away games so far this season (W3 D6) - no side has lost fewer on the road than the Seagulls so far this term, a most impressive record as ammunition for Sunday's trip to the King Power. They're looking to do the league double against City for just the third time, previously doing so in 1980-81 and 2013-14 following the 2-1 win on the coast earlier in the campaign.
If you likes those stats, then backing Brighton at 2.915/8 is fair. I'm surprised they are not favourites, but there isn't much in it.
Had Leicester not lost the plot for 14 seconds on Wednesday, they might have been shorter than the 2.47/5 on offer for Sunday. But they have a good record against the Seagulls and have only lost three of their 17 home league games against Brighton (W11 D3), most recently a 4-1 loss eight years ago.
The visitors will have their preparations hampered slightly due to Potter's absence, but he has also been linked heavily with the vacant manager's job at Everton this week. It's not a surprise, but as harsh as it sounds to the Goodison club, and I loved them in the 1980s, that would be a backward step.
Although Potter gets linked to every job.
Looking at the results column for Albion, there are a string of 'D's' on their dance card - 13 to be precise since the 27th of September. Of course we can use the Double Chance or Draw No Bet for the visitors, but I would rather be bold and go straight into the 3.45 outright. And as they don't concede too many goals inside the first 20 minutes, there is the option to trade out a small chunk of the bet in terms of price in-play.
Indeed, with just 11 goals given up on the road all season, we have to keep the draw onside.
Rodgers has been fighting all season to have a settled backline, and I've outlined before how Jonny Evans makes them more solid - but he hasn't been seen since mid-December and his absence seems to give Caglar Soyoncu the jitters.
Wednesday's game will be fresh in the memory for the Over 2.5 backers with the Spurs xG of 4.58 ridiculously high. Their woeful inconsistencies and ability to leak goals make them a prime team to back at 2.5 and more. You can get 1.9520/21 for the bet, which is probably clouded by the visitors and their excellent defensive record on the road with just 11 shipped in, and that makes me nervous about the bet.
The fact Brighton have been involved in seven 1-1 scorelines this term pushes me towards having a go at the Correct Score at 7.26/1. There's enough scope there for the trade out with a goal in the first-half.
Since a goalless draw with Wolves in February 2021, there have been 57 goals scored in Leicester's 13 Premier League games played on Sundays (F30 A27) - an average of 4.4 per game. Indeed, each of their five such home games in that run have seen at least four goals scored each time according to Opta - so we have to beat that stat.
Only Son Heung-min (7) and Mohamed Salah (6) have scored more Premier League goals on Sundays this season than Leicester's James Maddison (4), and he looked bright on Wednesday in front of the watching England manager Gareth Southgate. Indeed, he has been directly involved in 15 goals for Leicester City in all competitions this season (9 goals, 6 assists) - the only Englishman to be involved in more for a Premier League side this term is West Ham's Jarrod Bowen (17).
Backing Maddison to Score Anytime is not a laying price at 4.03/1 for me, so I am interested in him scoring from outside the box on the OddsBoost on the Sportsbook, as that bet has been pushed out from 13/2 to 9/1.
Danny Welbeck has scored three goals in his eight Premier League appearances against Leicester, including in the Seagulls' victory in the reverse fixture this term. Backing him and draw using the Betbuilder pays just over 10/1 on the Sportsbook.