Leeds v West Brom: Final day goal-glut on the cards

Patrick Bamford
Patrick Bamford has 16 goals already and could make it 17.

There are always plenty of goals between these two and a last-day game with little to play for may mean we get more of the same, says Jamie Pacheco.

And this is a fixture which has traditionally thrown up plenty of goals. Here are the last eight results between them: 4-2, 3-1, 2-3, 4-1, 4-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-5. Remarkably, that’s six of the last eight that have gone over 3.5 goals.

Leeds v West Brom
Sunday May 23, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

The great entertainers

I think all of the teams I've watched this season, Leeds are arguably the most fun to watch.

Under Marcelo Bielsa, their strategy of playing all-action attack-minded football whatever the situation has attracted plenty of praise and it's very deserved.

The list of players who have impressed for them is too long to mention in its entirety but Patrick Bamford, Jack Harrison, Stuart Dallas, Raphinha and keeper Illan Meslier were among the ones who were consistently good.

It will be interesting to see whether Leeds are able to keep them all next season.

Did Allardyce do enough?

Sam Allardyce did a decent job at West Brom but ultimately their disastrous start to the season meant there wasn't too much of a chance of staying up by the time he arrived.

But did Allardyce do enough? Maybe not. You could argue he still had enough games to have kept them up, but all that is in the past now and a case of trying to get automatic promotion at the first time of asking.

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But they'll be doing it without Allardyce, who decided that a season of trying to go up followed by another back in the Premier League (if they managed it) was too much of a long-term commitment.

Fair enough but they'll need to make a wise appointment in terms of the right sort of manager to get them straight back.

Leeds too short given the circumstances

Leeds are 1.454/9 to end the season in style, with WBA having one last day of heartbreak, in what has been a pretty tough season all round for them.

But I'm not sure that's a price worth taking. They've clearly been head and shoulders above the Baggies all season, but strange things happen on the last day of the season and even more so when neither team really has anything to play for.

Then again, Leeds beat them in their last two matches against WBA at home and thrashed them 5-0 earlier on in the season at The Hawthorns so there may be a few takers of the home team. But I'm not one of them.

It's 5.39/2 the draw and 7.06/1 the away win.

Go for (over 3.5) goals

This match has over 2.5 goals written all over it but at odds of just 4/9, I'm not sure the reward justifies the risk.

I'd rather push the boat out and go for over 3.5 goals at 6/5. The stats show there haven't been too many instances of Leeds home games having four or more goals this season, but other stats suggest it may be on the cards.

WBA's last four away games ended 2-5, 3-0, 2-2 and 3-1 so that's three out of the last four that would have paid out on over 3.5 goals. And this is a fixture which has traditionally thrown up plenty of goals. Here are the last eight results between them: 4-2, 3-1, 2-3, 4-1, 4-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-5. Remarkably, that's six of the last eight that have gone over 3.5 goals.

1280 Mateusz Klich Leeds.jpg

Add the fact that both teams may be playing with a bit more freedom than usual and that looks the stand-out bet of the game.

Dallas, Pereira worth a second look

If we fancy goals, then who might be a good bet to get one?

That man Bamford has 16 goals to his name and has scored in two of his last three games after a somewhat barren period where he only got one in nine. He's an 8/11 chance.

At 15/8 you can back Raphinha but his numbers suggest that's not a great price. He's scored seven in 36 games this season in all competitions, so we'd be wanting a better price than that.

Jack Harrison has had a good season with eight goals in 36 games and always seems to pop up in different scoring positions; he's 13/5. But the best bet of the Leeds players looks to be Stuart Dallas. He's netted eight this season and is considerably bigger than the others at 4/1.

If it's a WBA player you're interested in, look no further than Matheus Pereira. His 11 goals from midfield are an outstanding effort for a player new to the league playing for a relegated team. He's 11/4 and has been in terrific form with six in his last eight.

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