Southampton centre-back Jan Bednarek may be played out of position against Leeds and Dan Fitch likes the price on the Polish defender being shown a card...
"Normally a centre-back, Bednarek deputised at right-back against Chelsea. If he plays there again, he will be up against Leeds’ left-sided pairing of Stuart Dallas and Jack Harrison, who between them possess plenty of pace and trickery."
Leeds 2.35/4 v Southampton 3.412/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Tuesday 23 February, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Consistency missing for Leeds
Leeds will be looking to bounce back from another defeat when they host Southampton on Tuesday.
Marcelo Bielsa's team were defeated 1-0 at Wolves on Friday night, which was their third loss in the last four games (W1). With 32 points after 24 games, 12th placed Leeds only need two or three more wins to guarantee survival, which would have been their main ambition at the start of the season, but at some stage they would surely like to find a little consistency.
No team have drawn less games than Leeds this season (P24 W10 D2 L12). It's all or nothing with this team at the moment and the ability to dig in and grind out a result when not playing well, is something that they will need to develop, to fulfil their undoubted potential.
Bielsa looks set to be without a number of players for this match. Robin Koch, Kalvin Phillips, Adam Forshaw, Ian Poveda and Rodrigo, all missed the game against Wolves with injuries.
Saints on poor run
Southampton find themselves below Leeds, having gone seven matches without a win in the Premier League (D1 L6).
Looking positively, the Saints ended a run of six consecutive Premier League defeats at the weekend, when they drew 1-1 at home to Chelsea. Southampton took the lead in that match, before conceding a second-half penalty.
The bad news for Southampton is that the fixture list has somehow conjured up a run of four straight away games, at a time when they are in acute need of a victory. With 30 points from 24 games, Southampton are also very unlikely to be relegated, but there is the distinct possibility that what once looked like a promising season, could end on a disappointing note.
A lack of depth in the squad has been highlighted by the injury to right-back Kyle Walker-Peters, which has left Ralph Hasenhuttl without a specialist in that position. Also unavailable are Ibrahima Diallo, William Smallbone, Theo Walcott and Michael Obademi.
Take a chance on Leeds win
Leeds are the 2.35/4 favourites, with Southampton at 3.412/5 and the draw at 3.711/4.
It's right that the hosts are favoured, even if they're not in the best of form right now. Southampton are in the midst of a worse run and Leeds have consistently shown their ability to shake off the disappointment of defeat.
Leeds are perhaps a little slim though. They have conceded in seven of their last eight games and a Leeds win and both teams to score is more attractively priced at 3.814/5 and worth taking a risk on.
Bednarek could be out of position
Another high-priced bet that it might be worth taking a chance on, is for Southampton's Jan Bednarek to be shown a card at 5.59/2.
Normally a centre-back, Bednarek deputised at right-back against Chelsea. If he plays there again, he will be up against Leeds' left-sided pairing of Stuart Dallas and Jack Harrison, who between them possess plenty of pace and trickery.
Bednarek has been shown a card in three of his last four Premier League matches, including a red in the 9-0 thrashing by Manchester United. The Chelsea game was the only match in which the Pole was not played in his favoured position in the centre of defence.
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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L
Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts