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Leeds v Brighton: Seagulls' red-hot form too good to ignore

Jamie Pacheco
14 May 2022
3:00 min read

Leandro Trossard has been in excellent form of late.

Leeds United vs Brighton and Hove Albion
Sun 15 May, 14:00

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Brighton are an excellent price to beat a virtually doomed Leeds side but there are other good bets on offer as well, says Jamie Pacheco.

"We could go on but I think the fact the odds on offer about the two sides (Leeds are 2.74) are virtually the same is simply ridiculous."

Indiscipline truly kicking in at Leeds

The mid-season axe in a desperate bid to avoid the drop is always an interesting talking point.

Sometimes it can save a side from relegation, sometimes it just make matters worse.

In the case of Leeds, it might seriously cost them. When Marcelo Bielsa was sacked, they were 16th and still in with a decent chance of not going down. Now they're eighteenth with an excellent chance of going down.

It's true that over the past three matches they played three of the league's best sides in Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea so you couldn't have expected them to pick up many points there.

But it's also true they looked completely disjointed and undisciplined in every sense in those games. Yes, a few injuries didn't help but what's really inexcusable were the back-to-back first-half straight reds. You think that probably wouldn't have happened under Bielsa.

Luke Ayling and Daniel James (the two sent off) obviously miss out, as do the injured pair of Jack Harrison and Patrick Bamford.

Brighton deserve more recognition

It's been an excellent season for Brighton.

They're ninth on 47 points and with lots of teams just below them with a game in hand on the Seagulls, it's not so easy to guess where exactly they might end up but it's probable that at worst, it will be a Top 10 finish.

Leeds United

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brentford 1 2 Leeds United
Leeds United 1 1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United 0 3 Chelsea
Arsenal 2 1 Leeds United
Leeds United 0 4 Manchester City
Crystal Palace 0 0 Leeds United

Brighton and Hove Albion 3 1 West Ham United
Leeds United 1 1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion 4 0 Manchester United
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 3 Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion 2 2 Southampton
Manchester City 3 0 Brighton and Hove Albion

Leeds United vs Brighton and Hove Albion Sunday 15 May, 14:00

Full stats

They're around 1.251/4 to finish Top 10 and that they were once matched at odds of 35.0 on this market tells you just how well they've done over the past few months.

Look it at this way. If you were a Premier League side in the Top 10, how many of their players would you be interested in getting on board? Two? Three at the most? Exactly.

So great credit should go to Graham Potter and those underrated players who perform better than you'd expect, week in, week out.

potter brighton.jpg

In their last two matches they beat Wolves 3-0 away and Man Utd 4-0 at home so they're in the form of their lives.

All of Potter's main men are available.

Stand-out price on Brighton

It's really not often that you find such a standout price in a Premier League match but Brighton are surely a steal at 2.77/4

One: Brighton are 14 points better off than Leeds in the table.

Two: They're fresh from two excellent wins where they scored seven and conceded zero. Leeds have just lost three matches in a row.

Three: Leeds are four missing important first team players, the Seagulls have everyone to choose from.

Four: Brighton have won five of their last seven away games against Leeds.

The one and only point one could make against all that is that Leeds are desperate for the points and Brighton aren't.

But then again, that argument has never really washed with me anyway. These are professional footballers at the very top level justifying their wages and playing for their places. If that isn't motivation enough, then it certainly should be.

We could go on but I think the fact the odds on offer about the two sides (Leeds are 2.74) are virtually the same, is simply ridiculous.

All the better for us.

Over/Under 2.5 goals a choice affair

66.7% of Leeds' home games this season have gone 'overs' though for Brighton, the percentage of away games with at least three goals is just 38.9%.

However, recent stats suggest we'll get plenty of goals here.

Four of Brighton's last five away games went 'overs' as did six of Leeds' last seven home games.

Given it's even money the pair, 'overs' is a confident selection.

Get involved in this 7.68 Bet Builder

Bet Builders are always a good way to combine several opinions on a match in one bet. Unless they're all at ridiculously short odds, they generally come to something pretty chunky once you've added it all up. So here's one.

Raphinha aligned right 1280.jpg

Leeds are not just the side with the most cards this season, they're the first team ever to pick up 100 cards in a PL season with 97 yellows and three reds. That's from Opta.

You can get 7/5 they pick up over 2.5 cards here (home team total cards market) and that looks appealing, especially given what's happened over the past few weeks.

Leandro Trossard has been good for Brighton recently. His last three matches have produced two goals and three assists for him.

Betfair Sportsbook's new 'to score or assist' market has him at 23/10 to do one or the other and that looks decent.

The double comes to 7.68 and is worth including in your portfolio of bets for the match, as well.

Staked: 38
Returned: 28.41
P/L: -9.49 pts

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