Jones Knows Notebook: Roy Keane is right, let's relax about Tottenham

• Bet against Tottenham making top four @ 2.1211/10

• Underlying defensive metrics make for grim reading

• Beat the market by backing Luton's corner lines

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Listen to Keano, Spurs are overrated

Being a good judge of judges is such an important trait when trying to crack the betting game. We all like to think our own knowledge and decision making can solely make us winning punters but it's an unrealistic dream. Filtering out the gold from the guff across the football spectrum and turning that gold into betting opportunities is a key skill to learn.

That includes listening to pundits - and the levels of insight there can vary drastically. Usually, I'm more a Gary Neville than a Roy Keane listener, where sound thinking beats entertaining emotional outbursts but I was nodding along with Keane on Super Sunday in his assessment of Tottenham following their draw with Manchester United.

Keane said on Sky Sports: "Spurs were this, Spurs were that but they drew the game. They were the better team but we can't go overboard on Spurs that they were outstanding. The manager praised his staff, the bus driver, everyone was getting praised - but it was against a poor Manchester United team. It was 2-2. Everyone relax."

I agree, Roy.

To my eye, Spurs, despite giving the impression of dominating the game through their 64% possession haul, rarely gave Manchester United too much to worry about when probing towards their box. They only created 0.48 worth of expected goals from open play with their main threat coming from set pieces, where 0.76 worth of expected goals were fashioned.

I thoroughly enjoy watching Ange Postecoglou's style of play but Spurs, from a betting standpoint, aren't a team that fill me with confidence backing them at the prices they're being chalked up at. The balance still isn't quite there when defending transitions. There is a clear vulnerability. Opposition teams can pounce, counter attack and create big moments.

United managed it whilst Burnley, Bournemouth, Brighton and Everton created a total expected goal ouput of 8.2 - that's an average of 2.05 per 90 - in Tottenham's last four fixtures. Spurs were fortunate to come out of that run of games with three victories.

Let's look at some key numbers.

Spurs have conceded 143 corners this season, only Sheffield United have conceded more while the 208 shots conceded from inside the box is a worrying sign as only Burnley, West Ham, Sheffield United and Luton have shipped more. The underlying expected goals against figure isn't pretty either having conceded 36.37 expected goals against this season, it's the same as Burnley and the joint-16^th worst record in the league.

Such volatility is rarely conducive to achieving consistent results, so laying them to make the top four at 2.186/5 on the Betfair Exchange does appeal as a profitable trading angle as winning games at this current rate with those underlying numbers is unsustainable.

The absence of Son Heung-min is also going to have a seismic impact on their attacking output in the short-term.

Replacing his finishing ability with Timo Werner is like heading into battle with a feather duster when you was once armed with a battering ram. In the last four seasons, only Erling Haaland (27.59%) has a better conversion rate in the Premier League than the Korean star (27.43%) from players to have scored a minimum of 25 goals.

And, incredibly, Son has overperformed his expected goals output by 20 goals, recording an xG of 44.67 yet finding the net 64 times in the Premier League over the last four seasons. He is the best finisher in world football for me.

Son is missing for the rest of this month and could be gone even longer if Korea advance to the final at the Asia Cup, something they are 13/8 to do. The final is set for 10 February in Doha, which means Son could be missing for Tottenham's next four fixtures - Man City in the FA Cup before league fixtures with Brentford, Everton and Brighton.

If the prices are right, I'll be finding ways to take Spurs on in all those games and their top four hopes could subsequently diminish.

Keep on backing corner kings Luton

One of the more surprising narratives that has caught my attention this season is Luton's Premier League progress. They have grown week-by-week, showing a confidence in their unique man-for-man style of play whilst playing very aggressively and direct when in possession. I really enjoy watching them.

Teams are having trouble figuring them out. When you become comfortable and confident in playing a certain style, you become a very dangerous team. It's these teams I want carrying my cash. So, it felt right to add Luton to survive relegation at 3/1 to my ante post portfolio last week.

And, when Luton are firing on all cylinders, their corner count is a betting angle to exploit.

Rob Edwards knows his team must play for set pieces by getting the ball into opposition territory fast to create situations to win corners down the flanks or free-kicks by playing at a high tempo. The recent selection of Chiedozie Ogbene - a direct and speedy attack-minded player that loves driving to the by-line - has only helped in keeping Luton's corner numbers above market expectations.

With him in the side, and the excellent Alfie Doughty on the other wing, Luton are working the ball wide and deep which is leading to plenty of corner winning situations.

After winning seven v Chelsea, they won 11 in the FA Cup third round clash with Bolton before racking up eight at Turf Moor on Friday night - it's only the second time in 37 games that Burnley have conceded eight or more corners in a home game under Vincent Kompany.

If Edwards keeps Ogbene and Doughty in the team for Tuesday's FA Cup replay at Bolton, I'd advise locking your eyes onto Luton's corner count on the Betfair Sportsbook and seeing what price the traders are dangling on the corner handicap and the corner race markets.

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.