Jones Knows Notebook: An early look at Super Sunday blockbuster - are Arsenal a bet at bigger than 4/1?

• Are Arsenal value at 5.24/1 on the Betfair Exchange to beat vulnerable Man City?

• The Gunners have won 10 of 11 PL away games, conceding just three goals

• Exciting Tyler Dibling has the Jack Grealish's about him

Arsenal's odds to beat Man City are huge, why?

The sheer might and extraordinary levels that Manchester City operate at can be seen through Arsenal's price to win next Sunday's showdown between the two at the Etihad Stadium.

The Gunners, who have won 10 of their 11 Premier League games away from home in 2024, conceding just three goals along the way are a remarkable 5.24/1 for victory on the Betfair Exchange. That's a bit wild, isn't it?

A team with such power, organisation and class who are on the back of an excellent 1-0 away win at their fiercest rivals are rated with just a 20 per cent chance of victory to win a football match. It just feels wrong.

I'm so tempted to pull the trigger on them at that price, especially having watched Manchester City in their 2-1 win over Brentford.

Not for the first time over the past 12 months, City looked vulnerable, especially in the first half as Pep Guardiola's team were exposed in transition.

It resulted in the Bees stinging the champions inside 22 seconds and it could have been more during an opening 45 minutes where City conceded five or more shots on target for just the second time in a home game under Guardiola - and Brentford even won the possession battle before the break.

It was lucky City have a goal machine in Erling Haaland within their ranks who scored with his only two shots of the half to get them out of a sticky situation.

That said, Arsenal's analysts will be watching the replay of that first half rubbing their hands together.

The irremovable force that is Man City might just be movable if the Gunners can sprinkle some of Brentford's brave and incisive play with the ball to their already granite-like defensive structure, led by arguably the best centre-back pairing in world football in William Saliba and Gabriel. Those two were yet again outstanding on Sunday.

And, news flash, City failed to score in both Premier League fixtures against Arsenal last season as Haaland was shut down by that Arsenal defence. City had just two shots on target across both of those fixtures.

Fresh from implementing a gameplan of astute organisation, hard work and almost faultless shape without possession at Spurs which will be rinsed and repeated at City, I'd argue this might just be the moment for Arsenal to make a winning statement at odds which are disrespectful to the performances they've been producing on the road.

A new superstar: Dabble with Dibling

Another big early season game next weekend, for much different reasons, is Southampton hosting Ipswich on Saturday at 3pm.

Beating a relegation rival is genuinely like winning six points, so the six-pointer cliché runs true even this early on in the season. And judging by the way Southampton played the final 60 minutes against Manchester United, making a case for them to win as favourites at 6/52.20 is going to be a tough ask for those who still have faith in Russel Martin.

Four wins and four defeats doesn't read well but hope could come in the form of possibly the next superstar in the Premier League: Tyler Dibling, whose first half performance against United had me making all sorts of funny faces - in a good way. He was sensational.

The 18-year-old academy product wowed inside 10 minutes, when he darted down the right, cut inside and was only denied by top stop by Andre Onana. Who is this kid, I thought. Flash in the pan, maybe? Nope.

He then slalomed his way into the box to draw a foul from a bamboozled Diogo Dalot that resulted in a penalty.

When he was one of four Saints players withdrawn just after the hour, the home fans went for Martin.

What got my punting juices flowing regarding his attacking output was the way he moved and drew fouls like Jack Grealish.

He won four fouls in 63 minutes of action with his opposite number Dalot racking up a total foul count of four.

That is an exciting angle that we as punters should be capable of exploiting in the fouls markets offered by Betfair before the prices react accordingly.

It's certainly live next weekend up against Ipswich, who are a very aggressive team under Kieran McKenna, making 31 fouls in their two away games at Manchester City and Brighton - teams that aren't known for drawing a high volume of fouls.

If Dibling starts and plays with the same youthful exuberance and dribbling ability, then the Ipswich left-flank will be a place where fouls will be made. With that in mind, step forward Leif Davis, who has made at least one foul in his last seven starts for Ipswich. When the markets are released, keep Davis in your thoughts.

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