Ipswich v Nottingham Forest: Back an away win with goals at both ends

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Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Ipswich's late show masking a bleaker picture?

Glancing at the Premier League table, Ipswich look to have made a solid start to life back in the top flight, with three wins and four defeats from their opening seven games leaving them 10th on nine points.

However, a closer look at their results suggests things might not be quite as rosy as they first appear, with all three of their league victories secured courtesy of goals in the 90th minute or beyond. They scored in the 90th minute to beat Sunderland and Crystal Palace, before netting a 91st-minute winner against Fulham after equalising in the 88th minute.

Without those late goals, they'd have three draws and four defeats to their name and would be bottom of the table.

That's not to say Ipswich don't deserve credit for their never-say-die attitude, as they also scored in the 90th minute or beyond in defeats to both Man United and Man City, and in the 91st minute in EFL Cup games against Leicester and Arsenal respectively.

Scoring in the 90th minute or beyond in seven of their nine games is an incredible statistic, one which suggests that Gary O'Neil's men are prepared to keep fighting until the final whistle.

But is that evidence of a side with tremendous character, or are they simply enjoying a remarkable run of fortune that might not last?

Forest will be glad to get back on the road

Nottingham Forest will surely be relieved to be playing away from home on Friday night, given that they've failed to score a single goal in five home games (all competitions) this season.

Their away form has been a different story, with two goals at Liverpool in a 2-2 draw, another couple in a 2-1 win at Aston Villa, and one in a 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace. In fact, it could arguably go down as the eighth wonder of the world that Forest scored just once at Selhurst Park, having registered 24 shots and an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.97.

If they can carry that attacking threat into Friday's game, they should at least have opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

Worryingly for Forest fans, their team sits second-bottom of the Premier League table after winning just once and drawing twice in their opening seven games. However, a victory at Ipswich would lift them to 11th and transform the picture considerably ahead of the weekend's remaining fixtures.

The stakes are particularly high for manager Oliver Glasner, though, with another defeat likely to increase the pressure on him, given owner Evangelos Marinakis' reputation for making ruthless managerial decisions. Losing to a newly-promoted Ipswich side would hardly help his cause, making Friday night's encounter a potentially significant one for Forest.

Glasner is 9/110.00 to be the Next Premier League Manager to Leave.

Tricky Trees fancied to win entertaining clash

Nottingham Forest look a reasonable price at 13/102.30 to win this game (Ipswich 9/43.25, the Draw 12/53.40), and I wouldn't put anyone off backing the away win as a single. However, I'll be looking to enhance those win odds by adding goals at both ends.

The Tricky Trees' away performances have been encouraging, while the Tractor Boys' two home wins in the Premier League have come courtesy of 90th and 91st-minute winners against struggling Sunderland and Fulham, who currently occupy 20th and 18th place respectively.

Forest look the better-quality side on paper, especially with talisman Morgan Gibbs-White expected to return from injury, and I think their league position is flattering to Ipswich rather than a true reflection of the difference between these two teams.

But my main bet is going to be Forest to win and both teams to score at 16/54.20. Four of Ipswich's five home games (all competitions) have seen both teams score, with 18 goals in total across those matches. Forest have also seen both teams score in all three of their away games, which have produced 11 goals.

Those numbers suggest we're likely to see chances at both ends, and it's easy to envisage an entertaining encounter rather than a cagey affair, especially given the pressure on Glasner to get a win.

Keep the faith with Forest duo in 7/24.50 Bet Builder

Nottm Forest were without Morgan Gibbs-White for Sunday's narrow defeat to Arsenal, but Glasner said it was only a minor muscle injury and that he is confident he'll be fit to face Ipswich.

That's the good news. The bad news is that the last time I included Gibbs-White in a Bet Builder (away to Coventry) he was the only outfield player who started the game not to register a single shot!

But that was an outlier as he'd registered shots in each of his previous six league starts and then had two shots in his next game after Coventry, the 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace. In total, he's registered 19 shots (seven on target) in his last eight Premier League games.

James McAtee is another Forest midfielder I rate highly, and he's a player that often goes under the radar. He registered four shots in that game against Coventry and he's had 12 shots in total in his last five games, so he's definitely one to keep onside in what could be an open, entertaining game.

With goals expected on Friday night, we'll keep our fingers crossed that we witness at least three goals and add Gibbs-White to have three or more shots and McAtee to have two or more shots to a Bet Builder that pays out at 7/24.50 if successful.

If Gibbs-White fails to recover from his muscle injury in time to face Ipswich then I'd be happy to swap him for Daniel Munoz to have two or more shots in the game.

In fact, swapping Gibbs-White for Munoz gives us a Bet Builder that pays out at 9/25.50, which I think is very fair given that he is one of the most attack-minded wing-backs in the Premier League and that he registered two shots against both Crystal Palace and Coventry recently.

So I'll do something that is very rare for me in a single match preview and have three recommended bets. Good luck.

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