Dan Fitch sees value in backing Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score again for Everton, as he previews their match on Sunday against Fulham...
"The likes of Harry Kane or Jamie Vardy would not be available at these sort of odds against Fulham and as he’s been scoring a similar amount of goals ever since Carlo Ancelotti took over at Everton, neither should Calvert-Lewin."
Fulham 4.03/1 v Everton 1.9720/21; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunday 22 November, 12:00
Live on BBC One
Fulham need result as daunting fixture list looms
A quick glance at the fixture list suggests that this is a match that Fulham need to take at least a point from.
The visit of Everton will be followed by trips to Leicester and Manchester City, before Liverpool come to Craven Cottage. Everton represent a tough game for Fulham, but also perhaps their best chance of picking up a positive result within the next four games.
Scott Parker can be reasonably pleased with the progress made as Fulham readjust to life in the Premier League. The late activity in the transfer window has had a positive impact on the team, who claimed their first win of the season against West Brom in their last home outing, to climb out of the relegation zone. Even when Fulham have been beaten in recent weeks, it's been by single goal margins, with Parker's defence looking much improved from the early weeks of the season.
Aboubakar Kamara will be suspended for this match. He'll join the injured Kenny Tete and Terence Kongolo on the sidelines, while Mario Lemina remains a doubt.
Record without Richarlison highlights Everton problem
After a flying start to the season, Everton have been brought back down to earth with three straight defeats.
Those losses coincided with an injury to Everton's forward Richarlison. In the eight Premier League games he's missed since joining the club in 2018, Everton have failed to register a win.
This of course points to Everton's reliance on their star player, but also to a general lack of depth. Everton have a good team, but their squad as a whole still needs strengthening, particularly in attacking areas. Until that comes, they will always be subject to such fluctuations in form. The frustration for Everton fans is that the progress of growth has been slow considering how much money the club has spent over recent years.
Richarlison played for Brazil in midweek and limped off with an ankle injury, but seems likely to be involved on Sunday. Seamus Coleman, Allan and Fabian Delph are all doubts, with Jean-Philippe Gbamin a long-term casualty.
Everton tempting but wait for team news
Everton are the favourites at 1.9720/21, with both the draw and a Fulham win, priced at 4.03/1.
A few weeks ago this would be marked as a definite away win. Now there is more doubt. Fulham's form has improved and they are both better defensively and more of a goal threat, at a time when Everton are struggling.
The odds of 1.9720/21 for an away win are tempting though. If Richarlison does play, then it could prove to be great value.
Calvert-Lewin a big price in game where goals are likely
The Toffees have not kept a clean sheet since their opening match against Spurs, so it's no surprise to see both teams to score at 1.75/7. A little more generous is over 2.5 goals at 1.84/5, which has landed in six of Everton's eight Premier League games this season.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin can be backed at 2.265/4 to find the net. For a player that has scored eight goals in as many games to become the Premier League's joint top scorer, while also finding the net in recent England appearances, such a price looks big.
The likes of Harry Kane or Jamie Vardy would not be available at these sort of odds against Fulham and as he's been scoring a similar amount of goals ever since Carlo Ancelotti took over at Everton, neither should Calvert-Lewin.
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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L
Staked: 254.00 pts
Returned: 270.13 pts
P/L: +16.13 pts