Everton v Brentford: Decisive home win can carry Toffees to safety

Toffees closing in on survival target

It really did look desperate for Everton at one point when Burnley started winning and the Merseysiders slumped into the relegation zone.

But backed by some magnificent support, they've won three, drawn two and lost just once (to Liverpool) in their last six Premier League games.

That haul of 11 points out of 18 has taken them to 16th and if third-bottom Leeds don't beat Brighton at Elland Road earlier on Sunday, Everton know a win here would guarantee their safety.

If Leeds draw, Everton's vastly superior goal difference (currently -19 v -38) means a point would be enough, statistical pedantry aside.

The Goodison crowd have really upped it during this flirt with relegation - something not lost on Lampard - and eight home wins this season is the same number as Chelsea.

Everton even have a game in hand - they host Crystal Palace on Thursday - but no-one at the club will want to string this out longer than necessary. In short, go all out for three points on Sunday.

Bees buzzing as campaign comes to climax

It's been a fantastic effort by Brentford to be no part of any relegation chatter as the season draws to a close.

A fast start has held them in good stead and despite stalling, they've kicked on again to make the final few matches of their return to the top-flight stress free.

A top-half finish is even in sight if they win their final two matches and other results go their way so Thomas Frank and his staff have done a brilliant job.

On the road this season, they've picked up five wins and four draws while losing the other nine matches. The Bees have scored 23 times on their travels but let in a hefty 33 goals at the other end.

However, some of the best memories are recent ones: the one-for-the-ages 4-1 win at Chelsea is the standout while they also beat Norwich and Watford either side of that.

A 3-0 home success over Southampton last week made it six wins in their last nine Premier League games and they also held Spurs to a 0-0 draw in that run.

Comfortable win for Toffees

We actually have some decent head-to-head form despite this being Brentford's first season in the top division since 1946/47.

The Bees beat Everton 1-0 at home in November but then the two met again at Goodison in a fourth-round FA Cup tie, Lampard's first game in charge, and the Toffees ran out convincing 4-1 winners.

That was in February so is still fairly fresh in the memory.

Everton are 2.186/5 to win again while it's 3.711/4 for Brentford to enjoy a happier journey back south. The Draw is 3.613/5.

Motivation could be the key factor here and Everton's is massive given that a win will secure their top-flight status or at least put them on the brink of achieving it.

I just have a feeling that Brentford will be saving their best stuff for closing day when they host Leeds. And if they don't match Everton's intensity here, the visitors could be in trouble.

The basic Everton win price is just fine but I'm happy to push the boat out a bit and predict that the hosts will win this with something in hand.

Perhaps not 4-1 again but a two-goal winning margin is very achieveable so Everton (-1) at 4.3100/30 is the best bet.

Brentford losing 3-0 to a very mediocre Manchester United in their last away game acts as supporting evidence.

Richarlison appeals on Bet Builder

Looking back to that 4-1 FA Cup win, Richarlison grabbed the second goal and he looks the man most likely to fire them to victory this time.

The Brazilian has netted in his last two starts at Goodison, scoring a late equaliser against Leicester and the winner over Chelsea. Two-thirds of his goals this season have come at home.

On the Bet Builder, Richarlison to score first in an Everton win pays around 6.86/1.

Everton's new-found ability to keep clean sheets - two shutouts in the last three matches and three in the last four home games - lessens the appeal of Over 2.5 Goals or Both teams to Score.

The two 'Yes' options are 2.111/10 and 1.865/6 respectively.

Opta stat

Everton have kept three clean sheets in their last six Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 23. The Toffees are looking to go four league games unbeaten for the first time since their first four under Rafael Benítez this term.