Everton without Calvert-Lewin
Bournemouth impress against bottom-six
Asian Handicap approach represents value
Everton survival hopes on the line
Everton's quest to avoid a first top-flight relegation since 1950/51 will go to the final day of the season after Yerry Mina's bundled 99th minute equaliser earned the Toffees a potentially priceless point away at Wolves last weekend.
It means Sean Dyche's side go into the weekend knowing victory over Bournemouth will guarantee Premier League survival.
The Merseysiders can also maintain their status by matching or bettering the results of Leicester and Leeds and Dyche was naturally delighted by his team's character post-match, delivering special praise for midfield man James Garner, who willingly took on the role of right-wing back after Nathan Patterson was injured.
Everton's selection issues have also been compounded by the fitness worries of talisman Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
The England international pulled up with a hamstring injury on the stroke of half-time, and there's obvious concern surrounding his availability with the Toffees forward threat reducing significantly in his absence.
Bournemouth can play without pressure
Bournemouth were as short as 1/21.50 favourites for the drop pre-season, yet the Cherries are about to complete their sixth top-flight campaign and preparing to finish between 13th and 16th.
The south coast club secured safety with three rounds of action to play, a remarkable achievement for a side universally predicted to go down.
Bournemouth managed a W1-D1-L3 return before Scott Parker was sacked on the final day of August.
Gary O'Neill stepped into the void on a caretaker boss but quickly impressed, steadying the ship at the Vitality Stadium and being rewarded with the role on a permanent basis at the end of November. Under his tutorship, the Cherries rank 15th in points return.
Last weekend, O'Neill's outfit suffered a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Manchester United. Casemiro's stunning overhead kick proved the difference, although Bournemouth had chances of their own, going close through Dominic Solanke as well as a superb opportunity for Keiffer Moore.
There was also a welcome return to first-tema action for David Brooks.
Everton have found the going tough in recent head-to-head encounters with Bournemouth.
The Toffees have W4-D2-L5 in match-ups with the Cherries, although the Merseysiders have suffered three straight defeats against the south coast club, conceding exactly three goals in each reverse. That includes a 3-1 loss here on the final day of the 2019/20 season.
Everton 1.491/2 are far too short to support. Sean Dyche's side are winless in four Goodison Park games (W0-D1-L3), shipping 10 goals in the process, and have only won four of their 17 Premier League dates under the current boss.
The hosts have kept just four clean sheets during that 17-game sample and managed multiple goals on only four occasions.
None of Bournemouth's 7.4013/2 last 15 Premier League games have ended all-square (W7-D0-L8). However, after winning five of their seven fixtures in April, the Cherries have lost all three so far in May.
Nevertheless, the visitors boast a solid record against fellow bottom-six scrappers (W5-D1-L2), including winning at Southampton, Leicester and Nottingham Forest.
May is statistically-proven to be the highest scoring month of Premier League action. Since 2014/15 (and excluding rescheduled football during COVID times), May averages a bulbous 2.95 goals per-game in the EPL.
It's a trend repeated across the continent's major leagues with the final day of the campaign often seeing a decent uplift on goals output.
Over 2.5 Goals is a 1.768/11 shout on Sunday, although a more appealing angle of attack arrives in the Asian Handicap market where Bournemouth are available to support at 1.8810/11 with an eye-catching +1.0 & +1.5 start.
This selection makes money should Gary O'Neill's outfit win, draw or even lose by a solitary goal at Goodison Park.
Why? Well, this particular play has already paid out in 35 of 37 Everton encounters and the Toffees are shockingly short here as the motivational factor has been grossly overestimated.
Everton have only gone off as odds-on favourites once all season and have been priced at 6/42.50 (2.50) or shorter on just four occasions yet the Toffees are 1.491/2 here despite Dominic Calvert-Lewin's injury, plus the fact the Toffees could well survive without even winning.