Crystal Palace 2.285/4 v West Brom 3.814/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 13 March, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Surprising stat shows problem for Palace
It seems likely that we are coming to the end of Roy Hodgson's time at Crystal Palace, with his team limping towards the end of the Premier League campaign.
Hodgson looks to have once again secured Palace's Premier League status, with his side sitting safe in 13th place, but they have only won one of their last six games (D2 L3) and that was an underserved victory against Brighton, in which the opposition dominated.
Last weekend they were thrashed 4-1 at Spurs. Palace have now conceded 47 goals this season, which is the third highest number in the Premier League. It's a surprising statistic considering that Hodgson's teams are normally well-organised units that are hard to break down.
If the amount of goals that Palace are conceding seems high, the amount of injuries they currently have feels like a familiar problem. Wayne Hennessey, Nathaniel Clyne, Tyrick Mitchell, Nathan Ferguson, Mamadou Sakho, James Tomkins, James McArthur and James McCarthy are all injured.
West Brom need goals to pull off great escape
Palace might be conceding a lot of goals, but it remains in doubt as to whether West Brom will be able to take advantage.
Only Sheffield United have scored less than the 20 goals that West Brom have managed this season. Last weekend they failed to turn their dominance into the goal that would have earned them three points against Newcastle, with the game ending in a 0-0 draw.
The Baggies are essentially now nine points from safety, as their goal difference is so much worse than the likes of Fulham and Brighton. It's far from mathematically impossible with ten games of the season remaining, but West Brom will need to rediscover their scoring touch. When Sam Allardyce was appointed, things did improve in that area, but WBA have now only scored once in their last four games.
Allardyce does at least have a nearly fully-fit squad to choose from. Only Kieran Gibbs is currently unavailable.
No value for hosts in tight game
Crystal Palace are the 2.285/4 favourites, with the draw at 3.39/4 and a West Brom win at 3.814/5.
There doesn't seem much value in Palace at that price. West Brom have only lost one of their last five games (D3 L1) and could well avoid defeat again. You can back them at 1.715/7 in the Double Chance market, while the draw also appeals at 3.39/4, in a game that seems destined to be decided by a single goal, if there were to be a winner.
Low scorers meet
Under 2.5 goals looks a very safe bet at 1.664/6, with overs out at 2.427/5. It's landed in each of West Brom's last six games and in five of Crystal Palace's last seven home matches.
If you want to be a little bolder, under 1.5 goals is 3.002/1. Palace's last two home games have ended in goalless draws, with West Brom's last four matches all seeing less than two goals scored. The 0-0 half-time draw is another bet to consider at 2.68/5.