Crystal Palace v Norwich City: Woeful Canaries to be shot down at Selhurst

How will the Eagles fare 48 hours on?

Wilfried Zaha became the first-ever Palace player to receive a red card on a Boxing Day fixture, which compounded a fairly abject performance from the south east Londoners - losing 2-0 on Sunday against Tottenham. They were on a hiding to nothing against a born-again Lilywhites under Antonio Conte, but as the pleas to call the game off fell on deaf ears (and to raise questions about the whole cancellation process), the Eagles were swatted aside in tame fashion.

That shouldn't mask from a decent home record of W3 D5 L1 at Selhurst Park this season, but problems with availability and covid means the normal match odds thinking is somewhat skewed. However, their three wins on home soil have come against Tottenham, Wolves and Everton.

Manager Patrick Vieira was self-isolating and missed Sunday's game, while assistant Osian Roberts took charge of the team. They also had to play for nearly an hour with 10 men.

Tyrick Mitchell was a stand-out versus Spurs, and he gained more possession and played more passes in the opposition half than any of his team-mates. Joachim Andersen replaced Marc Guehi in north London, but we are guessing with team news as we await another batch of testing.

Smith in for a rough ride

Having put up a back of Norwich to finish Rock Bottom at 2.26/5 in October, that ante-post investment of three points looks in a good position now as they trade at 1.654/6, and since that selection three months ago, they haven't improved. In fact, they are surely one of the worst-ever teams to grace the top flight. I have never seen a side that is so incapable of scoring a goal.

Only three teams bottom of the Premier League table at the start of Boxing Day have avoided relegation: West Bromwich Albion in 2004-05, Sunderland 2013-14 and Leicester in 2014-15. It doesn't look likely does it following the 5-0 hammering at Carrow Road by Arsenal.

It's not time to bash a team when they are down, but their recruitment has to be questioned. So too the shoddy handling of Daniel Farke's exit. A tweet summed it all up from a fan who simply said only Norwich can look worse after spending £50million.

Manager Dean Smith cut a dejected figure following the Sunday's defeat. He said: "We have been beaten 5-0 at home and the coaching staff and I now have to try and lift the players. I'll have a debrief with them about this game and make sure we are ready for the next game." He tried to match-up with Mikel Arteta's 4-3-2-1 and it failed miserably.

Smith made three changes against Arsenal, but he could recall Todd Cantwell and/or Jacob Sorensen for Tuesday. Smith was again missing key personnel through injury or Covid-related absence with Tim Krul, but what an earth can change in 48 hours?

Match Odds

With Norwich heading into Tuesday's match off the back of four successive defeats and a woeful away record of a solitary away win, the 1.664/6 available on the hosts is not the worse bet I have ever seen.

But do we trust them after the Spurs loss? They accrued a pitiful 0.18 xG in that game, and just 0.52 xG at Old Trafford where they showed a bit of fight. I would rather deal with their Selhurst model and their previous three matches have recorded processes of 1.44 xG, 2.10 xG and 0.96 xG. Given they are hardly facing Arrigo Sacchi's AC Milan catenaccio, players of short odds will be rubbing their hands with glee.

I am not massively keen on tipping 1/2 chances, but I refrain from exploring HT/FT bets as I don't like that market. Backing Palace -1 in the Norwich +1 market pays 2.727/4.

Shot shy Canaries must be backed to fail again

The Canaries have netted a miserable eight Premier League goals this season, the joint-fewest any side has scored between the start of the season and Boxing Day in top-flight history. With just one goal scored in their last six league games, and even that was against ten men, several darts can be fired at markets on a another blank. Finding a Norwich goal these days must feel like unearthing truffles.

Siding with the 'Yes' in the Crystal Palace Clean Sheet market is a fairly obvious one, and that price is certainly influenced by covid, availability and the three conceded against Spurs. But it's Norwich, and the price looks more than fair at 2.265/4, albeit in a fairly illiquid market up on Boxing Day evening. Anything around 2.1011/10 is worth considering.

They've drawn six blanks away all term, so it's amazing they managed to score twice at Brentford in November. But that's six from eight games and the stats really ought to be in our favour for the bet.

Palace to win and Both Teams To Score 'No' using the Betbuilder on the Sportsbook pays 2.427/5.

Will it stay Under 2.5?

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market appeared undecided with 1.981/1 the pair on the original battlelines drawn up on the Exchange. Layers are clearly waiting for team news and further potential self-isolation cases, but if Norwich produce the pitiful 0.15 xG figure which they achieved at Arsenal, this could be a game the hosts would be happy to get away with a 1-0 or 2-0 given the torrid week they've had.

Backers of the Over 2.5 with Palace at Selhurst have copped on five of nine occasions thus far, but they have scored in eight of those nine. So I'd rather take a chance on dutching the 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Score Bets.

Gallagher to come to the rescue

The improvement of Conor Gallagher shows no signs of abating, and having managed just two goals and two assists in 30 matches last term for West Brom, the young midfielder has already shot past those figures with six goals and three assists.

While he does like a yellow card, his goals have come in big games with a brace at West Ham and one against Manchester City. Backing him at 6/4 on the Sportsbook will get my money.

My usual lay bet of the opposing team's striker that I don't fancy looks a non-runner as Teemu Pukki is likely to be around 3.55/2 to 4.03/1. Josh Sargeant didn't look fit against Arsenal and he could be double.