- Six of the last seven PL meetings have seen Under 2.5 Goals bet land
- Chelsea have kept five straight clean sheets
- Ronaldo row has strengthened ten Hag's authority
Kepa revival covering some cracks
It would be churlish to suggest that Graham Potter has not made an excellent impact since replacing Thomas Tuchel as Chelsea boss. The Blues have surged into the top four, and they are top of their Champions League section with two matchdays remaining. Former Brighton boss Potter has won five and drawn two of his seven games in charge.
However, if we dig a little deeper, it hasn't all been roses and rainbows. According to Infogol's Expected Goals data, Chelsea have comfortably lost the xG battle in their last two games against Aston Villa and Brentford, only for goalkeeper Kepa to produce 11 saves across the two matches and keep a pair of clean sheets.
Kepa has long been seen as an expensive mistake at Stamford Bridge, but this may finally be his chance to achieve redemption.
In attack, Chelsea have scored seven goals across their four PL games under Potter, outperforming a total xG of 5.4. It will take a while for things to truly click, while Potter works out which players best suit his style. To borrow a phrase from Tifo Football's Jon Mackenzie, Potter is a "problem-solver" who can use different line-ups to negate the opposition in different ways.
One problem Potter now has to solve is how to cover for the loss of the influential Reece James to injury. The England star could miss the World Cup with a knee problem, and the data will tell you that he is one of the most influential full-backs in European football.
Ben Chilwell could return to action on the left after being rested for the 0-0 draw at Brentford, but Wesley Fofana and N'Golo Kanté are still on the sidelines.
Ronaldo strop a gift for ten Hag
Manchester United's 2-0 win over Tottenham on Wednesday could prove to be a pivotal moment in the reign of new manager Erik ten Hag.
Not only did the Red Devils produce their most complete performance under the Dutchman - they peppered Hugo Lloris' goal while allowing Antonio Conte's men just two shots on target - but an incident towards the end of the game has enhanced the former Ajax coach's authority.
In the 89th minute, unused substitute Cristiano Ronaldo stormed down the tunnel at Old Trafford, and subsequently left the ground before his teammates could celebrate a fine win.
It has since been alleged that he refused to come on as a late substitute. Ten Hag has separated the Portuguese superstar from the rest of the squad ahead of the trip to Chelsea, and he will play no part at Stamford Bridge. Ronaldo has released an apology of sorts, but the fact the club has punished and not indulged him has shown the players who really now holds the power at Old Trafford.
United are just a point behind Chelsea in the race for the top four, and since the debacle at Brentford (United were humiliated in a 4-0 defeat) they have collected 19 points from eight games and beaten Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham. They are currently 2.9215/8 in the Top 4 Finish market on the Exchange.
Christian Eriksen was only fit enough for a bench role in midweek but could return, while Anthony Martial is struggling with a back injury. Jadon Sancho and Luke Shaw hope to keep their places on the left flank, and given that Sancho needs a good attacking full-back outside him to truly thrive, that could prove to be an effective partnership for United if ten Hag sticks with it.
Don't expect a thriller
Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between these sides have featured fewer than three goals, and this feels like another game that could be starved of goalmouth action. Chelsea have kept clean sheets in their last five competitive games, while United have just kept back-to-back shutouts against Newcastle and Spurs.
If you look at the teams' Expected Goals numbers, Chelsea (14.5 through ten PL matches) and United (15.2) are quite a way behind the top teams in the division, so their respective attacks aren't clicking in the way that Manchester City's (23.6) or Arsenal's (20.1) are. Under 2.5 Goals is trading at evens, and I think that's a price that's more than fair.
In terms of the Match Odds, Chelsea seem too short at 2.26/5. Even with home advantage, that price suggests they are significantly better than United right now, and I'm not sure the data or the results this term support that assertion. You could back United +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.111/10, which means a draw gives you a half-win, and an away success gives you a full pay-out at odds-against.
Antony the key to Bet Builder
This game is subject to our Bet 5 Get 5 offer (if you stake a £5 Bet Builder you get a free £5 bet - Ts and Cs apply), so it's worth thinking about how you can put together a Bet Builder.
If you want a modest Bet Builder of 2.526/4, you can back Under 3.5 Goals, United to have three or more shots on target (Chelsea have given up three or more in three of their four league games under Potter) and Antony to have two shots or more. Brazilian winger Antony has had at least two goal attempts in all five of his Premier League games so far.
For something a bit bigger, you could go for Under 3.5 Goals, Antony and Mason Mount to both have a shot on target (Mount scored twice v Aston Villa, and has had a shot on target in four of his last seven matches) and Manchester United/Draw Double Chance at 6.411/2.