Chelsea v Man City: Back Maresca's Blues in 17/1 Bet Builder say Opta

• Back goals and cards when champions go to the Bridge

• Matchday 1 could be good time for Chelsea to play City

• Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

For those who want a quiet start to the Premier League season, you are likely to be disappointed here.

Sunday's opening heavyweight clash sees Chelsea host Manchester City, fresh from an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League title.

The same fixture last season produced an enthralling 4-4 draw, so we could see more fireworks here. Let's have a look at the best bets according to the data.

A good time to play City?

Enzo Maresca is the latest face to be turned out by Chelsea's managerial merry-go-round, the fifth in the two years since Todd Boehly's takeover excluding caretakers.

While this hasn't been a profitable fixture for Chelsea in recent seasons, losing seven and drawing two of their last nine against City in all competitions, this could be the best time to play them.

That's because some of their big hitters are likely to be missing, having only returned to training in the last week following their participation in Euro 2024.

Notably, Rodri is one who is expected to miss out. Widely regarded as the best player in the world in his position, his influence cannot be overstated.

Since the 28-year-old played in Manchester City's 1-0 defeat to Tottenham on 5 February 2023, he has gone 50 league games without defeat (41 wins and nine draws). Without Rodri, City have lost four and won just one.

Another statistic worth considering is that Manchester City won just three of their 10 matches against other Big Six teams last season. Chelsea, meanwhile, avoided defeat in seven, including all five of their home games.

While it is not necessarily indicative of league performance, it is also notable that Manchester City have lost two and drawn two of the last four Community Shield matches after 90 minutes. Those were against Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United, with the latter being the only one in which they lifted the trophy - and even that required an 89th-minute equaliser and a penalty shoot-out.

Chelsea look a great draw no bet single at 2/13.00. For those wanting bet builder selections, the value is with Chelsea to win 11/43.75.

Goals goals goals

If last term was anything to go by, we could already have a contender for game of the season.

Chelsea's 4-4 draw at home to Manchester City saw the lead change hands three times. The point that the Blues earned in that match was one of 19 they recovered from losing positions in 2023/24 - the fifth-most in the Premier League.

That match was one of 26 in which City scored first last season and, given their firepower, it would be no surprise if they struck first again on Sunday.

Pep Guardiola's side were the division's top scorers with 96 goals in 2023/24, while Erling Haaland bagged his second straight Golden Boot - he has now scored 63 goals in two seasons.

With Chelsea having an unsettled goalkeeping situation, City could cause the hosts some trouble.

Djordje Petrovic has missed pre-season through injury, having finished last season as number one. That was despite posting the eighth-worst goals prevented figure (-5.9) of any goalkeeper in Europe's top five divisions last season.

In his absence, Robert Sanchez, who was initially dropped for Petrovic, and new signing Filip Jorgensen have shared the responsibility in Chelsea's friendlies and it is unclear who will start their opener. You can back City to score first at 4/71.57.

Selection queries are a running theme for Chelsea, given their astonishing squad depth. For context, new recruit Pedro Neto was the 35th signing in the two years of Boehly's ownership.

Although Maresca only used 27 players while at Leicester last season - the equal-third lowest total in the Championship - the size of his squad means he will surely mix and match a little more now. As a result, it is hard to know exactly who is going to turn out for Maresca's side in plenty of positions on Sunday.

But one player who will be a regular for Chelsea is Cole Palmer. Having bagged 27 goals in all competitions in an impressive breakout season last time out, he has just been rewarded with a new contract. He came on for the second-half in Chelsea's final pre-season friendly against Inter last Sunday following his return from Euro 2024 and will be in the squad here.

Given Palmer was the Premier League's top scorer in home games last season, with 16 goals, and has struck 12 times in his last eight appearances at Stamford Bridge, he should be backed to score again at 21/103.10.

Another player who featured against Inter after a busy summer was Nicolas Jackson, who returned to action following the Copa America. But unlike his team-mate Palmer, he struggled for consistency last season.

Jackson had the fourth-highest xG underperformance in the Premier League in 2023/24, scoring 14 goals from an xG of 18.64. What that suggests is that Jackson had plenty of good chances, but poor finishing let him down.

That profligacy means we should steer clear of backing him to get on the scoresheet, but two or more Jackson shots looks good at 4/91.44.

Expect a feisty one

There have been 39 yellow cards in the last 10 meetings in all competitions between these teams, of which 25 have been issued to Chelsea players.

Chelsea also finished last season bottom of the fairplay table having accrued 101 yellow cards - more than any other Premier League team. Manchester City were top with fewer bookings than anyone else (51).

At 5/61.84, two or more Chelsea cards feels like a good bet.

Perhaps unsurprisingly given their disciplinary record, Chelsea man Conor Gallagher committed more fouls than any other Premier League player (83) last season. Moises Caicedo, meanwhile, ranked 12th with 50, which averages out at 1.57 per 90 and includes seven fouls in his last four appearances against last season's top four.

Given that Gallagher's transfer situation means he is unlikely to feature in this one, we should focus on Caicedo. The midfielder is priced at 1/71.14 to commit one foul or more and 8/111.73 for two. With Chelsea likely to be eager to disrupt City's free-flowing play, this should be a good bet.

Chelsea v Man City Bet Builder Tip

Taking all of the above into account and using it to create a bet builder, the following is available on the sportsbook at 17/118.00:

Read more Premier League previews and get tips from our experts here!