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Chelsea v Everton Tips: Back the hosts on the handicaps

Dave Tindall
18 March 2023
4:00 min read

Chelsea boss Graham Potter

Chelsea vs Everton
Sat 18 Mar, 16:30

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Chelsea are back on track and can brush aside Everton on Saturday evening, says Dave Tindall...

Chelsea are winning and scoring goals again
Chelsea are a play on the (-1) and (-2) handicaps
Kai Havertz can score in a 4.03/1 Bet Builder

Saturday Super Boost

Joao Felix has been boosted to evens to have 1+ shots on target vs Everton.

The forard - on loan from Atletico Madrid, has had 26 shots in just XX games for Chelsea since joining in January, with 13 of those hitting the target.

Betfair have boosted him from 1/7 to hit the target just once against Everton (max £10). Bet below!

Back Joao Felix to have 1 or more shots on target - was 1/7 - NOW @

EVS

Chelsea hoping to produce a sprint finish

Chelsea seem to have been in 10th place forever and, as we enter the final third of the Premier League season, it would be easy to think they're destined to finish in mid-table obscurity.

But wait a minute. Could the big-spending Blues still be in contention for a European place and perhaps even the most desirable one?

A check of the markets shows Chelsea way down at 3635/1 to finish in the top four and they've actually been matched for bits and pieces at three-figure prices.

The idea of Chelsea surging into a Champions League spot will still seem folly to some despite the turning of a corner via three straight wins: Premier League successes over Leeds (1-0) and Leicester (3-1) and victory over Dortmund (2-0) that secured their place in the last eight of this year's Champions League.

Entering the weekend, Spurs occupied fourth spot but if Chelsea won their game in hand they'd be only eight points behind Antonio Conte's men.

There are plenty of other teams that have Spurs in their sights but with everyone taking it in turns to stumble, perhaps there is a gap there for a fast-finishing side to get their noses in front on the line.

With their raft of talented players starting to bed in and results picking up, maybe Chelsea are that team.

Home form looks key to Everton survival

Everton have very different priorities to Chelsea but they too are seeing a change of fortunes.

The Merseysiders finished last weekend in 15th spot which, in a normal season, might suggest they were going to be safe. But this is not a normal season.

Just five points cover bottom club Southampton and 12th-placed Crystal Palace so nine teams still face the threat of relegation.

Everton went into this latest round of fixtures ranked 2.526/4 for the drop. That's short but the positive news is that there are three teams - Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Southampton - trading at shorter prices so, if the betting worked out, the Blues will be safe.

Things have certainly picked up but the heavy lifting is being done at home. Everton have won three of their four matches at Goodison since the ex-Burnley boss took over.

Away from home, they've managed just a single point under Dyche, losing 2-0 at Liverpool, 4-0 at Arsenal and drawing 2-2 at Nottingham Forest after twice taking the lead.

The realistic take with Everton is that home form holds the key although they may need to win a couple of their six remaining away games to make sure. Unfortunately, they seem to be running into Chelsea at just the wrong time.

Chelsea expected to brush Everton aside

Chelsea are just 1.51/2 to reel off a third straight Premier League victory and a fourth win in a row in all competitions.

Everton are 8.88/1 to cause a shock while The Draw is 4.47/2.

The Toffees have had an excellent record at Goodison in this fixture, winning four of the last five although Chelsea nicked the points in this season's encounter via a penalty from the now departed Jorginho.

Everton held Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season but the Londoners had won four of the previous five on their own patch.

In fact, stretch further back and Everton haven't won there since 1994. That's 27 times in succession Toffees fans haven't been able to celebrate a win on the journey home.

The price on a home win looks short but there are other obvious ways to bump it up.

Handicaps looks best way to play Potter's men

Chelsea have conceded just one goal in their last five matches on home soil so their win to nil price of 2.166/5 is one option worth a look.

But preference is to head to the handicaps as I think the hosts can win this comfortably.

Back Chelsea (-1) on handicap @

2.52

With Potter finally able to call upon Reece James and Ben Chilwell, Chelsea are far more potent going forward. And it's showing on the scoresheet.

In their last four matches, they've increased their goal count each time - 0 v Spurs, 1 v Leeds, 2 v Dortmund and 3 v Leicester.

Looking at the handicaps, Chelsea (-1) is a 2.526/4 chance while Chelsea (-2) trades at 5.24/1 and I'll play both.

Part of the equation is that Everton aren't difficult to score against away from home.

Back Chelsea (-2) on handicap @

5.2

The visitors conceded twice at Anfield, four times at the Emirates and twice at the City Ground. By contrast, they've dug out three clean sheets in their four home games under Dyche.

The Under 2.5 Goals price of 1.834/5 suggests Everton will struggle to bring much to the table in terms of finding the net.

Havertz a Bet Builder option

The lack of a proven goalscorer remains a problems for Chelsea but Kai Havertz has netted in their last two games.

The German is no regular No.9 but his clever movement creates chances for himself and he's netted three times in his last seven home matches.

He really found his scoring touch at this time last season, firing home six in seven for Chelsea, including three in a row in March, so maybe history is starting to be repeat itself.

Chelsea (-1) and Havertz to score is 4.03/1 on the Bet Builder.

Back Kai Havertz to score and Chelsea (-1) @

4.0

Opta stat

Everton are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L8), failing to score in each of the last four. The Toffees last went five league games without a goal in London between April and October 2005, while they last had a longer winless run in the capital between 1970 and 1974 (17).

Staked: 43.70pts

Returned: 35.80pts

P/L: -7.90pts

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