Chelsea v Aston Villa: Kai Havertz key man for Bet Builder

• Chelsea have won nine of the last 11 v Villa

• Kai Havertz has netted in his last three games

• Havertz can score in a 3.259/4 Bet Builder

Blues still have some convincing to do

After three straight wins, including a 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund that booked them a place in the last eight of the Champions League, Chelsea were starting to turn a few doubters into believers.

But a 2-2 home draw with struggling Everton when the hosts twice relinquished a lead set the tongues wagging again. Many are still not having Graham Potter.

The pressure has certainly eased on the Stamford Bridge boss and a quarter-final Champions League tie with holders Real Madrid offers the chance for Potter to build his stock higher.

Before then he has two more home games to build momentum: this one and a Tuesday date with Liverpool.

Chelsea are out at 5049/1 to bank a top four finish and 7.613/2 for the more realistic task of making the top six.

They go into the weekend still down in 10th place but six points from Villa and Liverpool could theoretically see them jump to sixth spot.

Villa impressive on the road under Emery

The nine teams beneath Aston Villa are all involved in a relegation fight and the Villa Park heirarchy will feel justified that they decided to cut Steven Gerrard's tenure short.

Villa are still in the bottom half but they're 11 points clear of Crystal Palace in 12th and it's pretty clear that Unai Emery has done an excellent job.

One way of framing it is through the prism of away form and it's some stat that only Arsenal and Manchester City have taken more points on the road than Villa since Emery took charge.

The count is 12 points, Villa's four away wins coming against Brighton, Tottenham, Southampton and Everton.

They've also been banking victories at home and they go to London having taken 10 points from the last 12.

That run has seen them pull level with Chelsea on 38 points so it's fair to quote Villa's top six price too: it's 2423/1.

Villa have back-to-back away games coming up as they follow the Stamford Bridge trip by travelling to Leicester on Tuesday.

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Villa backers have price to tempt them in

With doubts still hanging over the hosts, it's easy to think Aston Villa represent good value here at 5.95/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Chelsea are just 1.728/11 to take all three points while The Draw is 3.929/10.

The concern for Villa backers must be the Villans' lack of away goals. They've managed just 12 and that's the same as second-bottom Bournemouth.

By contrast, after wondering where the next goal might come from, Chelsea have netted seven in their last three so the Blues' expensively-assembled side are starting to gel and produce end product.

Past head-to-heads also point heavily to Chelsea as they've won nine of their last 11 Premier League encounters against Villa, losing just once in that run.

Over 2.5 Goals could appeal

After a run of binary scorelines - six straight matches ended 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 - Chelsea's last two Premier League games have opened up a bit.

There were four goals in each of their last two matches so Over 2.5 at the underdog price of 2.021/1 appeals much more now.

Four of Villa's last seven matches have witnessed three or more.

Both teams to Score is an absolute pick 'em and I'd probably lean towards 'Yes' at 1.981/1.

Havertz finding a groove again

Kai Havertz has managed 13 goals for club and country this season which seems a decent haul for a player many still view as a slight disappointment.

The German found his scoring boots at this stage last season and history is repeating itself.

He's netted in Chelsea's last three games and I like him to continue that streak here.

Havertz is benefitting from the Blues' ability to win spot-kicks and he's slotted home penalties in the last two home games.

The No. 29 is still a decent enough price to score again at 17/10 but as I think Chelsea will win, let's head to the Bet Builder and take the straightforward option of Havertz to score and Chelsea to win at 3.259/4.

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Aston Villa have won just one of their last 17 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D4 L12), losing six of the last seven since a 3-1 victory in December 2011.

Money Back if you lose on the Exchange!

You can get your money back as a free bet (up to £10) on the Betfair Exchange if you back BTTS beween Chelsea and Aston Villa and one side fails to do so!

Currently trading at 2.0421/20, we have landed 6/8 of these so far in 2023.

So why BTTS? Well..

• Chelsea have won two of their last three Premier League games (D1) and have scored as many goals in their last three leagues matches (6) as they had in their previous 12.
• Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W3 D1), and have scored in each of their 14 matches under Unai Emery in all competitions.
• Eight goals have been scored across Chelsea's last two games, both scoring (5) and conceding (3) in each. They also gave up 2.5xG (v Leicester) and 1.3xG (v Everton) in those matches.
• Only Man City (16) and Arsenal (15) have picked up more points on the road than the Aston Villa since Emery's first game in charge (13 - W4 D1 L1).
• Ollie Watkins has scored in four straight away matches for Villa and has either scored (8) or assisted (3) in 11 of his last 15 Premier League games.

Make sure you head over to the Exchange here and opt-in to be involved, and if it does lose, your free bet will be credited instantly to use on a host of other football matches across the weekend!