Burnley v Tottenham: Safer to count on Kane than Spurs

Antonio Conte could get another reality check
Antonio Conte could get another reality check
  • Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur
  • Sun 28 Nov, 14:00

Harry Kane can get his Premier League tally going again but it may not be enough to give the visitors victory at Turf Moor, says Dave Tindall...

"His league tally is just a weird anomaly and I expect him to start knocking them in sooner rather than later in top-flight clashes. An excellent record against Burnley only helps that belief."

1pt Harry Kane to score in a Draw at 7.87/1

Burnley starting to build momentum

Burnley start the weekend in the bottom three and yet there doesn't seem any obvious reason to panic.

Sean Dyche's men have been here before and, as usual, are starting to put a slow start behind them by cranking into gear.

They're now unbeaten in four Premier League matches following a 3-1 home win over Brentford and draws against Southampton, leaders Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

Burnley

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  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
vs

Tottenham Hotspur

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  • Burnley 0 0 Watford
  • Burnley 0 0 Leicester City
  • Burnley 1 2 Huddersfield Town
  • Leeds United 3 1 Burnley
  • Manchester United 3 1 Burnley
  • Burnley 0 0 Everton
Close
  • Leicester City 2 3 Tottenham Hotspur
  • Tottenham Hotspur 0 0 Arsenal
  • Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 Chelsea
  • Tottenham Hotspur 3 1 Morecambe
  • Chelsea 2 0 Tottenham Hotspur
  • Watford 0 1 Tottenham Hotspur

Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 28 November, 14:00

Full stats

Six points from that run has doubled their previous tally and the fixture list ahead suggests they can continue to make progress.

While this is all familiar, the unusual aspect of Burnley's latest results is the goal count. If a 2-2 at Southampton seemed unexpectedly goal-laden, who on earth could have predicted a 3-3 against Crystal Palace week?

Anyone tuning in blind to the half-time report would have thought 0-0 was likely. Instead, the scoreline at the break was a crazy 3-2 to Palace.

No magic wand from Conte

I have to confess that I immediately bought into the idea of Antonio Conte turning Spurs around instantly after the rather lifeless displays under Nuno Espirito Santo.

But a 0-0 draw at Everton when they didn't have a shot on target, a narrow 2-1 home win over Leeds after going behind and an embarrassing 2-1 Europa Conference League loss to Slovenian minnows Mura has caused a rethink.

More importantly, Conte felt moved enough by those performances to give this sobering assessment: "After three weeks I am starting to understand the situation. It is not simple. At this moment the level at Tottenham is not so high.

"If someone thinks that a new coach arrives and Conte won in the past and then I am a magician ... but the only magic I can do is to work. To bring work and work to improve, to bring my methods, my ideas of football. But we have to understand that we need time."

You don't get much of that in the English game and Conte has had precious little time so far due to the international break disrupting his schedule.

At least he has the chance to bag some points over the next few weeks with Tottenham following the trip to Burnley with home games against Brentford and Norwich.

Tottenham have history on their side but doubts persist

This has been a pretty decent fixture for Tottenham down the years. They've won eight of the last 12 Premier League games against Burnley and lost just one. That came at Turf Moor two seasons ago.

They also won 1-0 at Burnley in the Carabao Cup at the end of October, Lucas Moura grabbing a 68th-minute winner.

For Sunday's clash, Spurs are 2.0811/10 to get another win while Burnley are 3.814/5. The Draw trades at 3.7511/4.

There seem too many uncertainties about Tottenham to take that price and Burnley's unbeaten four-game run adds to the idea that this isn't the best time to be playing Dyche's men.

There's also the 'X' factor of Burnley finding goals easy to come by all of a sudden. They've bagged nine in the last four and fired in six in the last two home games.

On those numbers, Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9520/21 seems a play although it's hard to imagine that Dyche is comfortable being involved in 3-3 thrillers. As a result, it's no surprise if he wants to play it safer this time.

Kane can get Spurs going but it may not be enough

Harry Kane has just one Premier League goal this season and yet has 14 overall for club and country after his strike against Mura on Thursday night.

In other words, his league tally is just a weird anomaly and I expect him to start knocking them in sooner rather than later in top-flight clashes. An excellent record against Burnley (see Opta stat) only helps that belief.

He's a touch of odds-on to score on Sunday but I prefer to tie in a Kane goal with the idea that Tottenham may struggle to get the win.

On the Bet Builder, Kane to score in a Draw is 7.87/1 and that's worth a play.

I'll also add in another player who knows how to find the net, Burnley's Maxwell Cornet.

The Ivory Coast man has been in superb form, netting five in his last six Premier League games.

The simple 13/5 anytime is fine but I'm going to add him into the first bet. So, that gives us Kane to score, Cornet to score and a Draw at around 21.020/1.

Finally, only Everton (seven) have won more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Tottenham (6). That's worth noting for in-running players. If Burnley take the lead, it's a decent punt that Spurs fight back to get something.

Opta Stat

Tottenham's Harry Kane has either scored or assisted in each of his last six Premier League games against Burnley (7 goals, 3 assists), having scored just once in his first four Premier League appearances against the Clarets.

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