Burnley v Southampton: Defensive woes suggest goals

Danny Ings
Danny Ings: Netted twice for Saints last weekend

Having conceded nine between them last weekend, Andy Schooler is going over the goal line when Burnley host Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday...

"Both of last season’s games between the sides produced three goals and I’m happy to play at the price."

Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.1411/10

Burnley v Southampton
Saturday September 26, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

We all know that the league table at this stage of the season tells you little but what the current standings do show is that these two sides have not started well.

Burnley lost their only game so far - 4-2 at Leicester last week - while Southampton have been beaten away to Crystal Palace (1-0) and at home by Spurs (5-2).

Claret and black and blue

The Clarets' result last weekend - offset somewhat by two good wins in the Carabao Cup - did not really come as a surprise.

Sean Dyche's squad is riddled with injuries right now. They've been particularly hard hit in defence where both first-choice centre-backs, Ben Mee and James Tarkowski, sat out.

Tarkowski may recover from a toe problem for this game, although Dyche do not sound too hopeful after Wednesday's cup win at Millwall.

Jay Rodriguez limped out of that game after rolling his ankle and with Ashley Barnes another key absentee, Chris Wood may well be partnered by Matej Vydra here.

Chris Wood scores 1280.jpg

Wood (pictured above) was a definite bright spot in the game at Leicester, scoring once and hitting the post with one of several other chances.

Things were not so good at the other end, hardly a surprise given the personnel. Burnley particularly struggled to deal with the Foxes' full-backs raiding forward and that will give Southampton plenty of encouragement ahead of this one.

They too will push on down the flanks, as they did last weekend against Spurs, but on that occasion their high defensive line proved a calamity as time and again through balls tore their backline in two.

Saints suffering

Burnley won't offer the same threat at Son Heung-min - they don't have the pace - but they should still cause problems to a defence drained of confidence after a chastising experience.

Summer sales mean there's not a great deal of options for boss Ralph Hasenhuttl in terms of bolstering things defensively - departed holding midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg was missed last week - and it could be a case of attack being the best form of defence for the Saints.

Danny Ings was again a real livewire against Spurs, scoring twice and regularly threatening. The England man will likely be relishing facing a defence minus Mee and Tarkowski.

For all Southampton's problems last week, they did manage to create chances, particularly in the first half, and keeping them out won't be easy.

As you can probably tell, I'm heading down the goals path and can certainly see there being a few in this game given the state of both sides' defences.

Value on goal line

Burnley aren't renowned as a big goalscoring side but they've found the net in their last nine Premier League games, plus two League Cup ties this season.

Southampton have similarly-strong figures. Yes, they were kept out by Palace on the opening day but they ended last season by netting in eight of their nine post-lockdown games. Importantly, they also have a major goal threat in Ings.

Both teams to score is at 1.9110/11 but over 2.5 goals at 2.1411/10 looks the better bet.

This market looks too heavily weighted to last season's data and doesn't take into account enough how both teams played last week.

Both of last season's games between the sides produced three goals and I'm happy to play at the price.

Burnley the bogey team

Burnley won both of those encounters - 3-0 at Turf Moor and 2-1 at St Mary's - and they are now unbeaten in their last seven against Southampton. They have never lost to them on home soil in the Premier League era.

Perhaps they are a spot of value at 3.3512/5 in the match result betting. The visitors certainly don't make much appeal at 2.447/5 following their effort against Spurs although there's no doubting they have the ability to prove me wrong.

I'd prefer to leave the result market well alone and stick with the goals bet.

Given I'm expecting goals, it would be amiss not to mention the goalscorer markets.

Dunne a good deal at 16s?

Ings at an industry-best of 5/4 to score at any time will attract many - and after he impressed last week wouldn't put anyone off - but for something really juicy you could try Jimmy Dunne.

After Dunne scored at Leicester last weekend, the ship may have already sailed but I'm surprised to see him up a 16/1 to find the net again in this game.

The stand-in centre-back scored once in nine matches during last season's loan spell at Sunderland and bagged two in 12 for Hearts the season before that.

He does have an eye for goal at set-plays, an area Burnley are strong in - 30% of their goals last season came from set-pieces.

Southampton conceded 11 in such situations last term (only seven teams had a worse record).

In short, Dunne looks overpriced.

Opta fact

Burnley have played more Premier League home games against Southampton without ever suffering defeat than they have against any other side (W3 D2).

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Andy Schooler's P/L 2020/21

Staked: 8.5pts
Returned: 7.34pts
P/L: -1.16pts

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