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Burnley v Newcastle: Magpies could increase jeopardy factor for Clarets

Andrew Atherley
21 May 2022
4 min read

Eddie Howe's Newcastle could be party poopers at Turf Moor

Burnley vs Newcastle United
Sun 22 May, 16:00

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Andrew Atherley says Newcastle can win at Turf Moor on Sunday to leave Burnley hanging on the Leeds result...

"Even with Burnley's desperate need, the value is with Newcastle to finish their strong second half of the season with a win."

Back Newcastle to win at 3.3512/5

Clarets take back control

Burnley took their destiny into their own hands with Thursday night's 1-1 draw at Aston Villa, which moved them out of the relegation zone on goal difference.

The Clarets are level with Leeds on 35 points but their goal difference is -18 and Leeds are on -38, which effectively means Burnley will stay up if they at least match Leeds' final-day result at Brentford.

A win would do it for Burnley (barring an unheard-of turnaround), keeping them in the Premier League for a seventh consecutive season.

Survival would vindicate the decision to remove Sean Dyche just over a month ago and put Mike Jackson in caretaker charge, as harsh as that move seemed at the time.

Jackson looks set to name an unchanged starting XI following James Tarkowski's return from injury on Thursday to bolster the heart of the defence.

Matt Lowton, brought on as a late substitute against Villa, is suspended after his straight red card.

Burnley

Newcastle United

Watford 1 0 Burnley
Burnley 1 1 Luton Town
Huddersfield Town 0 1 Burnley
Burnley 1 2 Newcastle United
Aston Villa 1 1 Burnley
Tottenham Hotspur 1 0 Burnley

Brighton and Hove Albion 0 0 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 2 0 Nottingham Forest
Burnley 1 2 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 2 0 Arsenal
Manchester City 5 0 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 0 1 Liverpool

Burnley vs Newcastle United Sunday 22 May, 16:00

Full stats

Howe can be risk-averse

Newcastle were 19th at Christmas (a point behind Burnley having played three games more) but have long been safe after the new owners brought in Eddie Howe following their takeover in October and then spent big in January.

Last week's 2-0 home win over Arsenal puts them in 12th place with a chance of a top-half finish if they take three points here.

Howe has no need to take any risks but changes might be minimal to Monday's line-up.

Callum Wilson lost a front tooth and Fabian Schar came off with a head injury in the Arsenal match but both should be available here.

Jamaal Lascelles came on for Schar and the club captain could keep his place for the final game.

Magpies on top form

Burnley had a new manager bounce, winning two and drawing two of their first four under Jackson, and that has helped them to put their fate in their own hands despite taking just one point from their last three games.

Their form at Turf Moor is not terrible, considering seven teams have lost more home games. As a comparison, a win here would put them above Wolves in the home table.

Burnley have lost seven home matches and all but two of them have been against the top five teams. The other defeats came against Villa last time and Leicester, so it is fair to say that on the whole it has taken a good team to beat them at home even in this troubled season.

The problem is that Newcastle are now a good team, having been the biggest spenders in the January transfer window both in gross and net terms.

The Magpies' league record in 2022 is W11 D2 L5 and, like Burnley at home, most of the defeats have been against the top sides. The only loss against a team outside the top four was 1-0 away at Everton in the middle of their only sticky patch this year either side of the last international break.

Newcastle's form in 2022 ranks them as a potential Champions League side. They have been fourth best since the turn of the year, not far off Tottenham (and even Manchester City) and ahead of Arsenal and Chelsea.

Given that those are the teams that have had success at Turf Moor this season, it is clear Newcastle have the form to take three points here.

On the question of Newcastle's motivation, that seems to be answered by the fact that Howe has looked keen to use this period as a momentum builder for his new-look team in readiness for a proper challenge in the European places next season.

It was evident on Monday against Arsenal, who were the team going for Champions League qualification but were outfought and outplayed by Newcastle.

A similar display here would give Newcastle a good chance of the win at 3.3512/5.

Those odds have been drifting since Thursday night and they look too big, given that one of this season's top four (which is how Howe's team have been playing in 2022) would be nowhere near that price.

Even with Burnley's desperate need, the value is with Newcastle to finish their strong second half of the season with a win.

Those odds could be boosted further by a Bet Builder involving Bruno Guimaraes, who has been quick to show his star quality. As Opta point out, only Allan Saint-Maximin (nine) has been involved in more Premier League goals for Newcastle this season than Guimaraes (six - five goals, one assist) even though the Brazilian did not make his debut for the club until February.

A Bet Builder with a Newcastle win and Guimaraes to score at anytime is available at odds of 6.25/1. He has scored in four of the Magpies' last six wins.

Fear or freedom?

High-scoring matches tend to be a feature of the final day, whether the teams are filled with fear or freedom, and over 2.5 goals at 1.981/1 would seem more likely here if scorelines start to go against Burnley.

Otherwise the Clarets might be content to sit and hold what they have, and they are certainly capable of keeping things tight at Turf Moor.

This season Burnley rank second for home matches with under 2.5 goals (67%).

Newcastle's goals tallies are still on the low side despite the improvement in their squad and they have tended to win or lose to nil (eight of their last 10 have gone that way).

The only teams that have stopped Newcastle scoring in 2022 are Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Manchester City (all defeats to nil).

A Newcastle win to nil is worth considering at 5.95/1.

Opta Stat

After winning three and drawing one of their first four Premier League away games in 2022, Newcastle have now lost four of their last five on the road (W1). Their last two defeats have seen them concede exactly five goals each time, with these coming either side of a 3-0 victory at Norwich. Burnley are 2.3611/8 to win.

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