Brighton v Wolves: Back Seagulls to prevail in entertaining affair

• Brighton unbeaten at home since middle of September

• Wolves performing well but away form is a concern

• Goals galore in recent clashes and more expected here

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Brighton v Wolves
Monday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Seagulls are tough to beat

When Brighton commence their Premier League game against Wolves on Monday night it will have been 16 days since they last played a game of football. Quite the luxury in the modern game.

Despite being one of quite a few Premier League clubs to have a long injury list the Seagulls are in decent form. They've lost just two of their last 16 games in all competitions, both of those defeats coming away from home to Chelsea and Arsenal respectively.

At the Amex Stadium Roberto de Zerbi's men haven't lost since the middle of September, a run that currently stands at nine games, and in their last home match they were very impressive in beating top four contenders Tottenham.

If there is a cause for concern it will be that Brighton are drawing too many games. Six of their last 11 league matches have ended all-square, and perhaps the worrying aspect is that five of those draws were against bottom half sides Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United, Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Despite some players returning to full fitness the Seagulls will still be without Tariq Lamptey, Joel Veltman, Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma, Simon Adingra, Julio Enciso and Ansu Fati for the visit of Wolves on Monday night.

Wolves maintaining impressive campaign

It would have been 17 days without a game for Wolves going into Monday night's clash had they not scored a second half equaliser at Brentford in the FA Cup third round in early January.

The 1-1 draw with the Bees meant the two teams had to replay at Molineux last Tuesday, a game they won 3-2 but not before having to play extra time.

Gary O'Neil's men - who were among the favourites to be relegated before a ball was kicked this term - are enjoying a great campaign, currently sitting 11th in the table with the opportunity to move up to ninth with a win at Brighton.

Wolves have won their last three Premier League games which includes an impressive 4-1 win at Brentford, but generally their away form hasn't been great. They'd lost four away games on the spin prior to beating the Bees, conceding 10 goals in the process.

Defender Jonny is Wolves' only injury absentee, but significantly a trio of key players will be missing on Monday night. Midfielder Joao Gomes is suspended, while defender Rayan Ait-Nouri and leading goalscorer Hee-Chan Hwang are away on international duty.

Match Odds

It could be that the key to predicting the outcome of this game is to assess which team will be most affected by their absentees, and my gut feeling is that team will be Wolves.

True, Brighton have a longer list of unavailable players, but some of them have been unavailable quite regularly this term and yet the Seagulls keep on performing well. And the likes of Mitoma - a key player last season - and Fati haven't exactly set the world alight so far this campaign.

But for Wolves, Ait-Nouri is arguably their best wing-back, Gomes will be a huge miss from their midfield, and losing 10-goal leading striker Hwang is a massive blow.

And of course, Brighton are on home soil, a place where they have an excellent record, while Wolves' away form isn't so great.

Add in the fact that Brighton have won their last four Premier League matches against Wolves, scoring a very impressive 16 goals in the process, and I think the home side are the bet at 8/131.61. You can back O'Neil's men at 4/15.00 with the Draw being offered up at 10/34.33.

However the bet I will be having and recommending is Brighton to Win and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 2/13.00.

This fixture has averaged over four goals per game in the last seven meetings with some of the outcomes reading 4-1, 3-2 and 6-0 wins for Brighton, while the two teams also played out a 3-3 draw in that spell, so there's a very recent history of high-scoring, entertaining games between these two sides.

That 6-0 victory for Brighton was actually in this corresponding fixture last season, and while I expect De Zerbi's men to at least score two or three here, I'm not convinced they'll keep a clean sheet this time.

In fact, the Seagulls, quite remarkably, are yet to keep a Premier League clean sheet at the Amex this season (10 games), while Wolves have scored in 22 of their last 23 games in all competitions.

If there's ever a game where both teams look destined to find the back of the net then this is it, and I fancy it will be the hosts that will outscore the visitors.

At least four goals expected

As you can probably tell by how I concluded my main bet, the Brighton win with both teams to score was actually going to be my only wager in this game.

But when providing my reasoning for that bet I thought to myself that I'd be quite disappointed if we got a high-scoring game and Brighton failed to win, so I'm going to suggest backing Over 3.5 Goals on the Betfair Exchange at 2.6613/8.

As already mentioned, Brighton, who scored four goals alone in their last home match, just don't keep clean sheets at the Amex in the Premier League, and they've scored in every single home game this term.

Wolves are in decent scoring form themselves, finding the back of the net four times in their last Premier League away game and scoring in 10 of their last 11 away matches in all competitions.

And with the last seven clashes between these two sides producing 29 goals (that's over four per game on average) I think the odds are definitely in our favour when backing Over 3.5 Goals to land on Monday night.

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