Brighton host Everton on Monday night and Simon Mail thinks the draw is overpriced in this Premier League contest...
"Brighton have drawn a joint high 11 matches this season and have also been held seven times at home - the most by any side at their own ground."
Brighton v Everton
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton heading for safety after improved form
Brighton are inching their way towards safety with Graham Potter's side holding a six-point advantage over third bottom Fulham heading into this weekend's fixtures. Sitting 16th in the table, Brighton may only need a couple of wins to secure their status and it would be a surprise if the Seagulls were overhauled by any of the bottom three.
Back-to-back wins over Tottenham and Liverpool earlier this year were a huge boost for Brighton and reward for their enterprising approach play.
Prior to the international break, Brighton earned vital victories over Southampton and Newcastle to strengthen their prospects of avoiding relegation.
Danny Welbeck gave them the lead at Old Trafford last weekend but Manchester United scored twice in the second half to claim a 2-1 win.
Everton's European hopes fading
Everton have competed in the top half of the table throughout this season but it appears as if Carlo Ancelotti's side may just fall short of qualifying for Europe. The Toffees were eighth in the table heading into the weekend and still have an outside chance of Champions League qualification but their momentum has dissipated in recent weeks.
A 2-0 victory at Liverpool in February is a result which will not be forgotten, after their first win at Anfield since 1999. But their poor form at Goodison Park has held them back and could be the decisive factor if they miss out on Europe. Everton lost at home to Burnley before the international break and were left frustrated after James Rodriguez's goal was cancelled out in the 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace on Monday.
Brighton are 2.3811/8 favourites for Monday's night clash but this looks too short based on their results this season. The Seagulls have only won twice at home in the league this season and have often found a way to drop points. With seven wins across the whole campaign, Brighton are hardly prolific and and look wrongly priced up as likely winners.
Everton are a tempting proposition at odds of 3.412/5. Their best form has come on the road this season with Everton winning nine matches. Only champions elect Manchester City and Leicester have won more away games and this record has to be respected. Their current form, with no wins in the last four games in all competitions, is however a slight concern.
The draw is available at 3.3512/5 and has to be of interest whenever Potter's side are involved. Brighton have drawn a joint high 11 matches this season and have also been held seven times at home - the most by any side at their own ground. Everton have been difficult to beat away and the stalemate looks a strong runner. It is marginal between the draw and siding with the visitors but Brighton's improved recent form suggests the hosts can claim another point.
Brighton have improved their productivity in the final third in recent matches.
After a lack of potency in attack, Brighton have scored seven goals in their last four games.
This includes three against Newcastle in their last home game. Increased confidence suggests Brighton should be capable of finding the net against their opponents.
Everton have only failed to score in two away games and a team featuring Rodriguez, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin should be able to break through at the Amex Stadium. Brighton have only kept one clean sheet in their last five games and are likely to concede again in this game. Everton won 4-2 in October's meeting between the sides and both teams should find the net again at 1.981/1.
Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster
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