Brentford v Tottenham: Bees hold Asian Handicap appeal against undercooked Spurs

• Brentford have lost just once at home

• Spurs could be understrength

• Bees hold Asian Handicap appeal

Brentford cushy in mid-table

After 15 fixtures in the 2022/23 Premier League campaign, Brentford sit 10th. The Bees are just three points shy of the top-six and six points ahead of the dreaded drop-zone following a reasonable W4-D7-L4 return. Thomas Frank's team have produced their best work as hosts, returning W3-D3-L1 at the Brentford Community Stadium, losing only to Arsenal.

Delving into the performance data rankings, Brentford are rated as eighth best performer in the top-flight on Expected Points (xP) thus far, and occupy the same place when viewing the same metric purely for home-based efforts. The Bees are also eighth in Expected Goals (xG) ratio, enjoying a positive +0.11 xG supremacy on a per-game basis this season.

The Bees signed off for the World Cup break with a memorable 2-1 success away at defending champions Manchester City and Frank is now expected to have the bulk of his previously injured players, and all of his internationals, available for Boxing Day. That includes Ivan Toney despite his recent charge for alleged breaches of betting rules.

Tottenham missing key personnel?

Tottenham appeared to be running on empty before the World Cup break. Spurs endured an exhausting six weeks with 13 matches in 43 days, all while grieving for their fitness coach Gian Piero Ventrone who died in early October. However, 11 of Antonio Conte's charges were involved at the World Cup, nine of whom were playing regularly in Qatar.

Skipper Hugo Lloris, World Cup-winning centre-back Cristian Romero and Ivan Perisic all seem set to miss out on Boxing Day but there's hope Eric Dier and Harry Kane may be available following their quarter-final exit. Meanwhile, Richarlison and Rodrigo Bentancur are unavailable through injury but Dejan Kulusevski is fit enough to feature from the off.

Prior to the World Cup, Conte witnessed his Tottenham team win just three of their last eight competitive fixtures, although the Lilywhites did sign-off with an entertaining 4-3 victory over Leeds to enter Christmas fourth in the table, albeit eight points adrift of table-topping rivals Arsenal having played a game more than the runaway leaders.

Spurs unappelling odds-on favourites

Brentford are winless in their last 13 meetings with Tottenham across all competitions, a run that dates back as far as 2-0 home triumph in the second-tier in March 1948 (W0-D4-L9). The Bees have failed to even score in each of their most recent five head-to-heads with Spurs since Lloyd Owusu's strike in a 1998 League Cup contest (W0-D2-L3).

Brentford 4.30100/30 are aiming to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since May. The Bees have suffered a solitary home reverse in seven this season and have W2-D3-L4 when welcoming Big Six opposition since promotion; that includes a goalless draw here against Spurs last season and only two defeats by more than a one-goal margin.

Tottenham 1.9310/11 have traditionally enjoyed Boxing Day. Spurs are unbeaten in 15 (W12-D3-L0) such fixtures since a 2-0 loss at Portsmouth back in 2003 - the second-longest unbeaten Boxing Day streak in history. However, the visitors haven't completely convinced on their travels this term (W3-D2-L2) and have managed only four clean sheets in 15 league outings.

Bees hold Asian Handicap appeal

Brentford and Tottenham are among the sharpest shooters in the Premier League this season; the Bees have fired only four blanks in 15 encounters, whilst Spurs have scored in all bar one of their own 15 league dates. But the duo have each managed just four shutouts of their own, leading to a combined 19/30 (63%) winning Both Teams To Score 1.794/5 wagers.

A repeat holds plenty of appeal on Boxing Day. However, I'm happy to side with Brentford +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian Handicap market here considering the Bees will be close to full-strength and facing a Spurs side that could be without a few key personnel, with little time to rest, recover and prepare for this contest off the back of the World Cup.

This selection sees only half of our stake lost should Tottenham triumph by a one-goal margin, with a home win or draw returning a full-stakes profit. Only a Spurs success by two goals or more sees our full stake lost.

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