Brentford ending season in style
Brentford finish their first Premier League season at home to Leeds on Sunday and Thomas Frank's impressive team are backed to send their opponents down to the Championship. The Bees have more than held their own in the top flight and a closing victory could be enough to end the campaign in the top half.
The mid-season signing of former Tottenham midfielder Christian Eriksen has proved an inspired move with his creativity propelling Brentford up the table.
Since his first start in March, Eriksen has provided four assists and Brentford have won 48 per cent of their points this season in the 10 games since his debut.
Brentford eased to a 3-0 win over Southampton in their last home game and took advantage of Everton being reduced to nine men in Sunday's 3-2 victory at Goodison Park. Rico Henry scored the second-half winner for Brentford.
Leeds facing drop in tense final day
Leeds' hopes of avoiding relegation are out of their hands after Burnley's draw at Aston Villa on Thursday. This result dropped Jesse Marsch's team into the bottom three on goal difference with their odds for the drop shortening to 1.4740/85. Leeds must earn more points than Burnley on the final day and if the Clarets defeat Newcastle at home, survival will beyond them.
This is a tough predicament for Leeds to be in with Newcastle needing to do them a huge favour. Leeds have not won since their victory at Watford in April and needed a late goal from Pascal Struijk to rescue a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton last weekend. Now it all comes down to Sunday's final day and Leeds know they will have to avoid defeat to have any hope of staying up.
Brentford are 2.466/4 favourites to win their final game of the season and the hosts look well-placed to achieve this. The Bees are in their best form of the campaign with seven wins from their last 10 matches and will fancy their chances of another victory.
Leeds have to assume they will need to win but odds of 2.942/1 exaggerate this possibility. Without a victory in their last five matches, Leeds have lost their way again at the wrong time. All the pressure is on their shoulders but it is hard to be confident in Leeds claiming the result they crave.
The draw can be backed at 3.9 but this may not be enough for Leeds and they have to push for the victory. Brentford have only drawn seven games this season and the hosts have the form and confidence to punish their opponents. As Leeds push forward in desperation, Brentford can pounce on the break and a home win appeals in this decisive encounter.
Leeds cannot afford to sit back and their leaky defence is likely to be exposed by Brentford.
Their defensive record is atrocious with Leeds conceding 78 goals this season.
Three of Leeds' last four matches have resulted in at least three goals scored while four of Brentford's last five contests featured over two goals.
Over 2.5 goals is a short price at 1.684/6 so preference is to look to Betfair's Bet Builder market. Brentford's Yoane Wissa has scored four goals in his last eight league games, including the last two matches. Backing Wissa to score and over 2.5 goals increases the odds to a tempting 3.23.
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games against Leeds, winning six and drawing four times, since a 2-1 loss in August 1950.
Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster