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Brentford v Everton: Looks like a draw, could well be a draw

Jamie Pacheco
27 November 2021
4:00 min read

Rafa Benitez has had a load of injuries to contend with.

Brentford vs Everton
Sun 28 Nov, 13:00

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The stalemate looks the pick on the match-winner market and we may also get a tie when it comes to the number of cards for both teams, says Jamie Pacheco.

"Neither team is necessarily a draw specialist. Everton have three, Brentford four. But this has the makings of a draw with Benitez probably happy to settle for a point while he’s missing so many players and Brentford seeing another point as a step towards safety."

Strong progress so far

12 games, 13 points. A considerably better start to the season than most expected from the favourites for the drop.

They're averaging over a goal a game (16) and have conceded 17.

Both those columns were inflated as a result of a 3-3 at Newcastle last weekend. They'll probably be pretty pleased they got something from the game because they had less possession and just four shots on target, from which they scored three.

Spanish midfielder Sergi Canos came to the party after a somewhat quiet start to the season, providing two assists.

Ivan Toney ended a six-match goal drought by scoring in that one to make it three for the season but they'll want him to at the very least get to double figures for the campaign given he looks a class act.

Injuries mounting up for Benitez

Things just aren't getting any easier for Rafa Benitez.

A growing injury list that already contained Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Tom Davies, Andre Gomes and Abdoulaye Doucoure and Yerry Mina now has a new member in the form of Demarai Gray. Of those, Gray is the one with the best chance of featuring here.

Mason Holgate was already suspended so the last thing Benitez needed was another suspension but Richarlison's fifth booking of the season means he misses out as well.

There was no disgrace in losing 3-0 at Manchester City but they were poor throughout and hardly created anything. The absences don't help but they need to find a way to deal with them and somehow get a few more goals.

Salomon Rondon should get a chance to do just that given Benitez has little choice but to play him in the place of Richarlison.

Stalemate the smart bet

What odds would the three outcomes have been if this was the first match of the season?

The draw would probably have been about the 3.3512/5 it is here but the two teams may have had their odds the other way round.

So Everton may well have been 2.3211/8 rather than the 3.613/5 they are here and vice-versa. It shows you the layers really do think Everton are badly out of form, which they are.

But I'm not sure about a quote of 2.3611/8 on the hosts. Before last week's draw, they'd lost four in a row including three at home. Worryingly, one of those was against rock-bottom Norwich.

The head-to-head record is of little assistance here because the last time they played was in 2010/11; it was so long ago that it was in the "Carling Cup'. Remarkably, Everton's first choice right-back Seamus Coleman actually played in that match.

Neither team is necessarily a draw specialist. Everton have three, Brentford four. But this has the makings of a draw with Benitez probably happy to settle for a point while he's missing so many players and Brentford seeing another point as a step towards safety.

Obvious as it sounds, if it looks like a draw and the price is decent, there's no reason to not go with it.

'Overs' just about the pick

Statistically, there's a smidgeon of value about the 2.265/4 on over 2.5 goals.

That's because three of Brentford's six games have gone over 2.5 goals, while for Everton it's four from six. That includes three in each of their last two: a 2-1 defeat at Wolves and that 3-0 at Man City last weekend.

Then again, with Everton deprived of two or three of their main sources of goals, you'd think they'd seriously struggle to get more than one.

So best leave it alone.

Tie on the card index as well?

Now to a slightly odd bet but one I like. Three of Brentford's five home games have seen the two teams draw on the number of cards.

Curiously, in all cases it was exactly a booking each (10-10 points).

What's even more curious is that four of Everton's six away games went the same way in terms of bookings points and even freakier, all four of those saw both sides get exactly one booking each, as well.

That includes each of their last four.

Coleman and Pickford.jpg

So, the 10/3 that they tie on the Card Index Match Bet looks a fine price.

A 3.69 Bet Builder worthy of a second look

A decent alternative to that bookings bet is that there are less than 40 points (four bookings) in the game at evens. As we said, the norm for both sides is for there to be two bookings in total in their games.

And a good alternative to over 2.5 goals is that both teams score, at 20/23.

Put those two together in a Bet Builder to get odds of 3.69.

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JAMIE'S 2021/22 P AND L

Staked: 15
Returned: 3.72
P/L: -11.28 pts

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