Brentford v Chelsea: Norgaard worth a play in London derby

Thomas Frank and Brentford have made a bright start
Thomas Frank and Brentford have made a bright start
  • Brentford vs Chelsea
  • Sat 16 Oct, 18:30

Chelsea may ultimately have enough to get past an impressive Brentford side on Saturday but the best bets lie elsewhere...

"The combative Dane has played in all seven of Brentford's games and been shown a yellow card in three of them."

1pt Christian Norgaard to be shown a card at 3.7511/4

Brentford the early surprise package

Sheffield United were a revelation when winning promotion to the top-flight a few seasons ago and Leeds took on that mantle last term.

Easily winning the battle to be the biggest breath of fresh air this season are Brentford.

Thomas Frank's side have already banked 12 points from their seven games to sit seventh in the table ahead of the weekend.

Brentford

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Chelsea

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Brentford vs Chelsea Saturday 16 October, 18:30

Full stats
They've played out a pulsating 3-3 draw with Liverpool and also taken seven points out of nine from London derbies against Arsenal, Crystal Palace and West Ham.

Given that Chelsea are Saturday evening's visitors, that has to bode well.

The Bees may have had to rely on the play-offs to finally get promotion but they absolutely belong in the top division on what we've seen so far.

Chelsea far from perfect but lead the way

Chelsea were completely outplayed at Stamford Bridge by Manchester City and have had to dig deep and huff and puff in other games.

And yet, they're the only team with five wins out of seven and that's been enough to take them to the top of the table.

Big summer signing Romelu Lukaku has netted in just two of his six Premier League starts so this has been a collective effort so far.

That was shown in the game that took them back to the top - a 3-1 win over Southampton just before the international break as Timo Werner and Ben Chilwell netted in the last six minutes to secure a 3-1 win.

The next week is tough for many teams. Liverpool for example travel to Atletico Madrid in midweek and the host Manchester United in the Premier League.

By contrast, Chelsea take on Malmo and Norwich in their next two fixtures so Thomas Tuchel won't have to be too creative about resting legs.

Chelsea deserved favourites but Brentford may be dangerous

I've got contrasting views on this one.

The first scenario is that Brentford go for it, cause Chelsea all sorts of problems and emerge with something from the game - just as they did against Liverpool in a similar early evening kick off.

The second is that Chelsea show their class, dominate possession and pick them off with a couple of goals.

The outright market shows Chelsea at 1.635/8, Brentford at 7.06/1 and The Draw trading at 4.03/1.

Given the pro-Brentford alternative, I can't be backing Chelsea at that price although an option could be Chelsea-Chelsea on the HT/FT market at 2.526/4.

Overs could appeal

Anyone who watched Brentford's 3-3 draw against Liverpool will surely be a little tempted by the Over 2.5 Goals price of 2.0811/10.

That said, Brentford's other two home games have witnessed scorelines of 2-0 (v Arsenal) and 0-1 (v Brighton). They also drew 0-0 at Crystal Palace.

In addition, Chelsea have conceded just seven goals in their 12 Premier League away games under Tuchel.

Norgaard strong candidate to be carded

The best I like most in what could be an all-action derby is Christian Norgaard to be carded at 11/4.

The combative Dane has played in all seven of Brentford's games and been shown a yellow card in three of them.

Norgaard was also booked in Denmark's 5-0 home win over Israel.

In addition, he played in both of his country's World Cup qualifiers last week so tired legs and mind could equate to the odd mistimed tackle that could bring punishment.

Wissa worth a look on Bet Builder

Yoane Wissa scored the late equaliser against Liverpool but that's not been his only goal contribution this season.

The DR Congo forward has also netted three times in EFL Cup games against Forest Green and Oldham while he netted a 90th-minute winner at West Ham last time.

That adds up to five goals in six appearances so Wissa looks a fair price at 7/2 to score anytime.

If he does find the net, I have my doubts that it would come in a Brentford win to nil. In other words I like Chelsea to find the net too.

The two can be combined on the Bet Builder by backing Both teams to Score and Wissa to Score at around 5.14/1.

Opta Stat

Yoane Wissa has scored five goals in his last five appearances in all competitions for Brentford, averaging a goal every 47 minutes for the Bees this season. Of all Premier League players in all competitions this season, only Marcus Forss (37) and Cameron Archer (46) have a better minutes-per-goal rate than the Congolese forward, though neither of those players have scored in the Premier League so far.

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