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Cherries face familiar foe
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Bournemouth losing games and leaking goals
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Big disparity between teams in corner count
Return of Howe a reminder of Cherries' past
The lavish spending that Bournemouth have just engaged in during the January transfer window must seem a world away for some of the club's most loyal fans. Back in 1997, the Cherries were on the brink of bankruptcy, with the Inland Revenue owed a hefty six-figure sum. The local newspaper ran a headline that simply stated "Save Our Club", as the club's bank account was frozen.
Thousands of fans flooded into the Winter Gardens concert hall, donating a total of £35,000. It was a sticking plaster, but the club survived, and 26 years later it is owned by wealthy American businessman Bill Foley. These days the fears are simply about relegation from the top flight, not about whether the club will fold entirely.
Eddie Howe was a Bournemouth player when that desperate Winter Gardens fundraiser took place, and as the club's manager he helped it become the kind of organisation that would be attractive to an investor like Foley. He kept them in the Football League in 2009, and eventually took them to the promised land of the Premier League. He comes back to the south coast as boss of Newcastle this Saturday, and he should return to a hero's ovation.
The current Bournemouth team has seriously lost momentum under inexperienced manager Gary O'Neil. The Cherries have lost seven of their last eight competitive matches, and have leaked 16 goals in the process at an average of two per match. In the last three home games, Bournemouth have lost 2-0 to Crystal Palace (one of their worst performances of the season), been dumped out of the FA Cup by Championship side Burnley and been held to a 1-1 draw by fellow relegation battlers Nottingham Forest.
The Cherries still have a host of players missing, while Dominic Solanke, Lewis Cook and Marcus Tavernier are all carrying knocks.
Magpies building slowly
While there has been understandable opposition to the Saudi takeover of Newcastle (there are many who believe that nation states shouldn't own community institutions like football clubs), it's hard to begrudge long-suffering Magpies fans their day in the sun. The club has reached a rare cup final, and there remains a possibility that they will qualify for the Champions League well ahead of schedule.
Manager Eddie Howe has lent an air of calm and credibility to the whole enterprise, has recruited smartly and carefully in concert with the club's owners, and has shown he can organise a team incredibly well. Newcastle have lost just one of their 21 Premier League matches, and have leaked a paltry 12 top-flight goals.
However, there is a fear that the Magpies' charge could drown in draws. A league-high ten of their games have ended level, including four of the last five. In the next two months they'll face tricky clashes with Liverpool and both Manchester giants, and they'll hope to still be in the mix after that. On the road, Newcastle's only defeat has been at Anfield against Liverpool, and that was only courtesy of a last-gasp winner from Fabio Carvalho.
Brazilian midfield general Bruno Guimaraes is still suspended, but Alexander Isak could be available in the forward line after suffering concussion.
Corner count the key to Bet Builder
If you look at the Premier League corner statistics, you see that Newcastle average a league-high 6.8 corners, while only giving away 4.1. Conversely, Bournemouth concede a league-high 6.6 corners per game in the top division, and only win an average of 3.7.
On that basis, I'm happy to use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Newcastle to win Over 5.5 Corners, and to win the Corner Match Bet. I'll also throw in an Over 1.5 Goals bet (that has paid out in 13 of Bournemouth's last 16 competitive games), and back Miguel Almiron to have at least two shots. Almiron averages 2.38 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season according to fbRef.com, and he'll be up against novice left-back Jordan Zemura.
That little lot comes out at a combined price of 2.962/1.
If you want a more conventional approach, you could just back Newcastle to win and win the Corner Match Bet at 2.166/5. My only fear is that the Magpies have recently found it tough to turn draws into wins.