English Premier League

Bournemouth v Manchester United: Back the Cherries at 11/10

Andoni Iraola - Bournemouth
Bournemouth have kept back-to-back clean sheets

Bournemouth still harbour European qualification hopes and will look to secure maximum points on Sunday against a Man Utd side that's impossible to trust. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing the Cherries for top honours.

  • Bournemouth still eyeing a top-seven finish

  • Man Utd set to rest and rotate

  • Cherries backed for a home success

  • Check out Mike Norman's Build Ups tips at the bottom of this page


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Bournemouth v Manchester United
Sunday April 27, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Bournemouth frustrated last time out

Bournemouth missed the chance to close the gap on the Premier League's top seven as they were held to a draw by 10-man Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park last weekend. The Cherries had the numerical advantage for over half the match, but Andoni Iraola's side failed to break down their opponents in a second half low on goalmouth drama.

Bournemouth dominated possession after the interval but, aside from a tame Evanilson header, rarely looked like breaching Palace's organised defence. The stalemate moves the Cherries on to 49 points - a club record in the Premier League - but they are now eight points behind seventh-placed Aston Villa, with European qualification now looking unlikely.

Speaking post-match, Iraola said: "Before the game it wouldn't have been a bad point but considering we were playing against 10 for more than 45 minutes it's disappointing. It feels like a missed opportunity. Two more points would have been lovely for us. But we are still in the fight. We have to keep going. We have five games remaining and are in the fight."

Match Preview

Bournemouth - Man Utd
Bournemouth
  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. D
  5. W
  6. D
Man Utd
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. D
  6. L
Full Stats Powered by Opta

Manchester United fail to fire, again

Struggling Manchester United failed to build on their thrilling Europa League success over Lyon as they returned to Premier League action with a limp 1-0 loss at home to Wolves last weekend. Pablo Sarabia's brilliant 77th-minute free-kick settled the Old Trafford contest as the Red Devils fell to their 15th league defeat of the season - their worst return since 1990. 

Rasmus Hojlund was inches away from turning home Alejandro Garnacho's low cross at the far post for the hosts, but it was another uninspiring effort from Ruben Amorim's team. Mature performances from youngsters Harry Amass and debutant 20-year-old central defender Tyler Fredricson were arguably the only bright lights in another downcast day.

Analysing the encounter, Amorim said: "We didn't score our opportunities. That's it. We need to score goals. We need to continue to work but it is not just Rasmus, the whole team missed a lot of opportunities and that's an area we must improve. This season is going to end like this so we need to take the positives and work on what we need to improve."

Red Devils easily opposed

Bournemouth went W2-D1-L9 in their first 12 Premier League meetings with Manchester United, though the Cherries have impressed of late against the Red Devils. The Dorset outfit have scored eight goals and picked up seven points from the duos last three encounters with Bournemouth looking to complete a league double over Man Utd here on Sunday.

Bournemouth 1.758/11 have posted W2-D3-L5 since the start of February to lose their grip on the top-seven. However, the Cherries have recorded back-to-back clean sheets and come into this contest boasting the second-most home shutouts in the division. Andoni Iraola's troops have also won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in 14 of 16 home showdowns thus far.

Man Utd 5.004/1 have now taken nine points from their past 10 Premier League games with their only triumphs in that time coming against bottom-three pair Leicester and Ipswich. The Red Devils have failed to score in 13 different EPL outings, firing blanks in three of their past four league fixtures; the visitors have also tabled only four away triumphs this term.

Market right to move in Cherries' direction

Speaking after Manchester United's remarkable comeback victory against Lyon, head coach Ruben Amorim said: "One moment can change a lot of things in the players' minds, we have to be really focused on Europa League and take risks sometimes with kids in Premier League. Fans have to understand that, we have to focus on the Europa League."

With a Europa League semi-final showdown against Athletic Club on Thursday to look forward to, United are expecting to rest and rotate ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium. The market has understandably reacted with Bournemouth's price contracting; however, there's still room to manoeuvre if we wish to get the Cherries onside here.

We can back Bournemouth to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 11/102.11 which pays-out should the home side triumph 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1. Considering Man Utd's goalscoring issues, combined with Bournemouth's impressive home defensive data, plus the visitors eyes being firmly on the Europa League prize, the odds-against offering holds plenty of appeal.


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Recommended bets

Mike Norman's Build Ups Tips:

Player to have More Shots on Target

We've been opposing Bruno Fernandes quite regularly of late in these Shots on Target Match Ups, sometimes with success, sometimes not so. But we're happy to take him on again if he starts for Manchester United in Sunday's meaningless game on the south coast.

Meaningless for United that is, as Bournemouth very much have something to play for sitting 10th in the table just a few points behind Fulham in eighth, which means they still have an excellent chance of qualifying for Europe, whatever competition that maybe.

United of course are in Europa League semi-final action later in the week and you'd imagine they really don't care much for this game, and if that's the case then the Cherries may have the upper hand.

If they do, then Antoine Semenyo looks worth backing at 5/61.84 to have more shots on target than Fernandes. The Bournemouth midfielder is ahead of the United man on season-long stats, averaging 1.16 SOT per game in the Premier League to Bruno's 0.84, but significantly, the recent stats are very much in Semenyo's favour.

The 25yo has registered 15 shots in his last four games, with four of those being on target. Fernandes, perhaps with one eye on European games, has managed just five shots at goal in his last three Premier League game with just one being on target.

If Fernandes doesn't start then an alternative Match Up is Semenyo to beat Alejandro Garnacho. The United winger is averaging 0.88 shots on target in the Premier League this season and has registered just two in his last four games. Semenyo is 8/111.73 to beat Garnacho if you prefer this Match Up.

Player to Commit More Fouls

Evanilson is the man we're hoping keeps his head against United on Sunday afternoon as a couple of United players look really good bets to commit more fouls than then Cherries striker.

Evanilson commits on average 1.08 fouls per game in the Premier League this season but in recent weeks he's committed just five in his last seven Premier League games.

Compare that to United's Patrick Dorgu who has committed six fouls in just his last two games. Now you might think that's crazy, but it's even more staggering when you think he committed those six fouls in just 94 minutes. He played 35 minutes against Newcastle and committed four fouls, and he played 59 minutes against Wolves and committed two fouls.

It's a big surprise then that we can back Dorgu at 6/42.50 to commit more fouls than Evanilson in a Match Up bet.

Alternatively, consider Noussair Mazraoui who has commited five fouls in his last four Premier League games, and is 7/52.40 to commit more fouls than Evanilson on Sunday afternoon.

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