Everton v Chelsea Tip - Back a Pedro and Tarkowski battle
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Saturday, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports
It's been a great start to the season for Everton, unbeaten and sitting fifth in the Premier League. In that unbeaten run they have drawn four of six, only scoring eight goals and conceding just five for an average of 2.17 goals per-game. That's a huge contrast with this Chelsea side who've scored the third most goals in the league whilst possessing the joint worst defence.
I went into this game looking to back Jack Grealish's likely opposing player(s) to make fouls and/or be carded given he's been targeted more than normal by Chelsea having won over 2.5 fouls in seven of his last nine appearances when facing the West London side. Unfortunately there little value backing Pedro Neto and Josh Acheampong in those markets.
Instead I'm going to focus on Chelsea's main goal-getter in Joao Pedro. He's the fifth most fouled player in the league drawing 2.8 fouls per-game. And he happens to be facing James Tarkowski who's struggled in this match-up, committing over 1.5 fouls in five of his last seven meetings, including two in this match last season. An 11/43.75 Bet Builder on Pedro to be fouled twice and Tarkowski to commit two fouls is enough to entice me in.
Back Joao Pedro to Be Fouled 2 Or More Times and James Tarkowski to Commit 2 Or More Fouls
Brentford v Liverpool Tip - Back the Reds as underdogs
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Saturday, 15:00
Brentford look plenty short at 13/102.30 favourites at home to Liverpool - they were 29/103.90 underdogs in this fixture 12 months ago. The question here is are Liverpool's absentees enough to justify Brentford's favouritism? Andoni Iraola says Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak and Dominik Szoboszlai are "not far away" from returning but remain doubtful for this weekend. Ryan Gravenberch will also be suspended. It still leaves a likely attacking threat of Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz and Victor Munoz with Alexis MacAllister in midfield.
And it's not as if Brentford are in frightening form. They've failed to win four of their last five league matches where they've also failed to keep a clean sheet. Liverpool have been much better defensively with three clean sheets in their last four league games. I think Brentford are too short so the logical bet is to side with Liverpool +0.25 on the Betfair Exchange - if it ends in a draw it's a half win with an away win providing a full payout.
Back Liverpool +0.25 Asian Handicap
Fulham v Hull Tip - Winless Fulham have to be opposed
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Saturday, 15:00
I'm really happy to oppose winless Fulham, given they are 7/101.70 favourites to beat Hull, despite losing four defeats and drawing two as Alvaro Arbeloa's nightmare start to life in London continues. Hull City have had a remarkable start to the season losing just once, in a fixture list that's contained Man Utd, Aston Villa and Chelsea! Despite being in eighth, expected points does have them as overachieving, ranking them 17th based on underlying data. It's a remarkable achievement! They've gone from conceding the most shots in the Championship, to only conceding the tenth most in the division above.
Put it all together and I'm happy to back Fulham not to win at the odds. Taking Hull +1.0 on the Asian Handicap, again on the Betfair Exchange, means Fulham need to win by two or more goals for the bet to lose.
Back Hull +1.0 Asian Handicap
Man City v Ipswich Tip - Back shot happy full-back
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Saturday, 15:00
Man City are sitting pretty at the top of the table with six wins out of six. Ipswich also must be pleased with their start, with three wins already. That is one fewer than the last time they were in the Premier League! In that campaign, Ipswich lost 10-1 to Man City over both games. City are just 1/51.20 to win here with the handicap line set at -2 with odds of 7/52.40. So City would have to win by three goals to land a winning bet. That could be dangerous given their last two home games saw PSG scoring four and Sunderland bagging three! Ipswich may well be enticed to attack in periods here.
One player who seems to be going under the radar is full-back Leif Davis. He's averaging the fourth most shots per-game for the Tractor Boys with 1.2pg and has had at least one shot in five of six games, including against Liverpool and two away at Old Trafford. He's [11/10] just to have a shot here where he'll be looking to add to his two goals already this season.
Back Leif Davis to Have 1 Or More Shots
Newcastle v Aston Villa Tip - Back Toon not to win
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Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports
An indifferent start to the season for Newcastle and new boss Matthias Jaissle with two wins, two draws and two defeats positioning them 11th in the table. Closer inspection paints a worse picture however, with Newcaslte having the fifth fewest shots in the league, resulting in the fourth worst xG. Going the other way, they are conceding the second most shots, resulting in the sixth worst xG against. This ultimately puts them in the relegation zone based on expected points.
Villa seem to be over their slow start, which can be forgiven following a summer overhaul, and recent wins of 6-0 against Fenerbahce and 3-2 at Tottenham show the side is gelling. Newcastle are 5/42.25 here which says that with home advantage removed, these two are similar level in terms of ability. Yet there were 16 points difference between them last season and currently we have to put our faith in Unai Emery's excellent body of work over multiple seasons. It's another Asian Handicap bet for me, the alternative for Sportsbook punters would be Villa/Draw on the Double Chance, which can be backed at 8/131.61.
Back Aston Villa +0.25 Asian Handicap
Kevin Hatchard is also opposing Newcastle - read his preview here!
Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in an acca at 6/17.00
Back Liverpool And Draw Double Chance, Hull +2 Handicap, Leif Davis to Have 1 Or More Shots and Aston Villa And Draw Double Chance