Aston Villa v Newcastle: Leaky defences will concede again

Dean Smith.
Will Dean Smith see goals when his Aston Villa side host Newcastle?
  • Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
  • Sat 21 Aug, 15:00

Both Aston Villa and Newcastle defended poorly in their opening games and Dan Fitch is backing goals when the teams meet on Saturday.

"There were five goals in Villa’s opening match and six in Newcastle’s, with both teams scoring twice."

Back over 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Newcastle at 1.84/5

Signings will take time to settle

A new look Aston Villa side lost their first game of the season last weekend and will now be looking to put some points on the board at home.

Adapting to life without Jack Grealish was always going to be difficult for Villa, as everything tended to go through their attacking playmaker. In the long-term, Villa might be the stronger for the additions that they have been able to make with Grealish's 100m fee, but it could take some time for this new team to gel.

There were some encouraging moments from the newcomers in the disappointing 3-2 defeat to Watford last weekend. Danny Ings scored his first goal for the club from the penalty spot, while Leon Bailey came off the bench to assist John McGinn's strike.

Bailey could make his first start this weekend, while Douglas Luiz and Morgan Sanson are also in contention to be involved, having returned to training. Definitely out with injuries, are Trezeguet, Bertrand Traore, Keinan Davis and Ollie Watkins.

Aston Villa

  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Newcastle United

  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D

Saturday 21 August, 15:00

Full stats

Newcastle fragile in defence

Newcastle also lost their first game of the season, despite going ahead twice in their 4-2 home defeat to West Ham.

Even when 2-1 up at the break there was a sense that the scoreline flattered Newcastle and that West Ham would pose a threat in the second-half. Newcastle approached the match in a positive manner, but in doing so, looking very open on the counter.

So far Newcastle have only signed one senior player, having secured Joe Willock after last season's successful loan spell. Willock scored eight goals in 14 appearances for the Magpies, so signing him permanently was something of a no-brainer, but on the evidence of last weekend, Newcastle need more defensive additions to enable their attacking players to be given some freedom.

Jonjo Shelvey looks set to miss the trip to Villa, after picking up a calf injury. Also out are Karl Darlow, Martin Dubravka, and Paul Dummett.

Ignore result market, with Villa too slim

Aston Villa are the favourites at 1.865/6, with the draw at 4.03/1 and Newcastle at 4.57/2.

With home advantage it's right that Aston Villa are favourites, but considering their opening result, their odds are a little too slim to recommend. Villa found wins hard to come by when Grealish was injured last season and in their defeat to Watford, looked every bit as defensively fragile as Newcastle were against West Ham.

This looks like one of those games where it makes sense to completely ignore the results markets, especially as there looks likely to be goals in this match.

Goals seem inevitable

There were five goals in Villa's opening match and six in Newcastle's, with both teams scoring twice. Odds of 1.768/11 for both teams to score, look pretty generous under the circumstances.

At a slightly higher price of 1.84/5 is over 2.5 goals, with over 3.5 goals available at 3.185/40. Over 1.5 first-half goals landed in both Aston Villa and Newcastle's opening fixtures and is available at 2.747/4.

Top strikers on display

Both teams have strikers that are deadly, when fit. Ings had a disrupted campaign at Southampton last season, scoring twelve in 29 Premier League games, but found the net 22 times when he played all 38 games of the 2019-20 season.

Ings is available at 2.35/4 to add to his tally for Villa. Callum Wilson also scored twelve goals in the Premier League last season, from 26 appearances. He's involved in a high percentage of Newcastle's goals when available and looks value at 2.915/8 to find the net.

Steve Bruce has indicated that Willock should feature. It's risky backing a player who might start the game as a substitute, to score, but odds of 6.05/1 are tempting for someone with Willock's record for the Magpies.

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