Aston Villa v Man City Tips: Watkins can stun champions in 6/1 Bet Builder

Watkins the man to upset the City applecart

Aston Villa have an incredible home record and can extend it by beating a Rodri-less Manchester City on Wednesday...

  • Villa have won their last 13 home Premier League games

  • Ollie Watkins can net in a 6/17.00 home win Bet Builder

  • Douglas Luiz is another Bet Builder option at 12/113.00

  • Aston Villa v Man City
    Wednesday December 06, 20:15
    Live on Amazon Prime

    Villa perfect at home

    These are heady days for Villa fans, especially those who only go to home games.

    Unai Emery's side have been sensational at Villa Park this season, winning six out of six and scoring 23 times in the process. That's more home goals than any other Premier League team and plenty have played a match more.

    Add in their hot finish to the previous campaign and, remarkably, Villa have won their last 13 home Premier League matches. If they can make it 14, the 1982 European Cup winners would leapfrog Manchester City in the table.

    Villa had to settle for a point in a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last time but even that had a positive spin after Ollie Watkins came up with a 90th minute equaliser.

    City stuttering and missing key men

    Scoring 11 goals in their last four games suggests Pep Guardiola's treble winners are purring again.

    And yet that isn't the case. Due to conceding 10 goals in that same quartet of matches, City had to settle for draws in three of them: the Premier League games with Chelsea (4-4), Liverpool (1-1) and Tottenham (3-3).

    Pep will be desperate to plug those gaps but he'll have to do so without the man best equipped to stop the leaking: midfield maestro Rodri.

    Rodri's importance to City is massive and the hit-you-in-the-face stat to prove it is that they lost three domestic matches on the spin earlier this season when the Spaniard was serving another suspension.

    Former Villa hero Jack Grealish is also banned after picking up a fifth yellow while to complete a hat-trick of negatives, flying winger Jeremy Doku is a doubt after limping off in the 3-3 draw against Spurs on Sunday.

    Villa the value with Rodri out

    On one hand it's very easy to suggest that getting 10/34.33 about a team that have won their last 13 home Premier League matches is a gift.

    On the other, can we really see City coming up short again after dropping six points in their last three top-flight starts?

    Without Rodri, the answer has to be 'yes' as his absence clearly has a huge effect on the team.

    But before setting off down that path, here's another stat punters may want to bear in mind: Emery has yet to beat Guardiola in 13 attempts, losing nine of those head-to-heads.

    That looks like a fly in the ointment but, on closer inspection, they've only met three times since 2012, City beating Villa 3-1 at the Etihad in 2023 and doing the double over Arsenal in 2018/19. Prior to that, Emery's Valenica twice held Guardiola's Barcelona to draws at the Mestalla back in 2012.

    Overall, it's pretty clear that Emery will never have had a better chance to put one over his compatriot. Villa have been sensational at home and City are stuttering.

    City are 8/111.73, the same price that Erling Haaland is to score. The Draw is 16/54.20.

    Watkins and Luiz can play key Bet Builder role

    There's no need to try and re-invent the wheel when looking at the Villa players most likely to inflict defeat on City.

    Ollie Watkins has 10 goals in his last 13 club games in all competitions. That includes strikes in each of his last four starts in claret and blue and five in his latest four outings at Villa Park.

    Watkins to score in a Villa win is around 6/17.00.

    Back Aston Villa to win and Ollie Watkins to Score @ 6/17.00

    Bet now

    Douglas Luiz is Villa's penalty taker and a lethal one at that.

    The Brazilian has netted five goals in his six home Premier League games this season while it's less reported that he netted in the final two home matches of last season, a pair of 2-1 wins.

    Luiz is a genuine goal threat and the odds about him scoring in a Villa win look mouthwatering at around 12/113.00.

    Back Aston Villa to win and Douglas Luiz to Score @ 12/113.00

    Bet now

    For those who really want to push the boat out, Watkins, Luiz and Haaland all to score in a Villa victory pays 60/161.00. That doesn't look an unreasonable scenario.

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Dave's P/L

Staked: 15.50pts

Returned: 11.20pts

P/L: -4.30pts

2022/2023 P/L: +£16.79
2021/2022 P/L: +£8.69
2020/2021 P/L: +£3.06

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