Aston Villa v Leeds: Goals forecast for Friday night

• Villa averaging 1.90 goals since Gerrard's sacking

• Leeds expecting key players to return

• Recent performances suggest goal-filled game

Aston Villa embarassed in the FA Cup

Aston Villa boss Unai Emery is demanding a reaction from his players as the Villains go in search of their first home win in 10 weeks on Friday. The Spaniard lashed out at his squad following their horror 2-1 defeat as hosts to Stevenage in the FA Cup last week, a result that came hot on the heels of an underwhelming effort versus near-neighbours Wolves.

Emery said, "We have to continue the process, be very demanding like I was but maybe more now. We can't think we are better, and we are Aston Villa and they are in League Two. I am upset, disappointed, I'm sorry for our supporters. We have to use it to learn as soon as possible thinking we can create a new way and I want to see a big improvement next week."

Villa have a number of players rated doubtful for the fixture. Matty Cash picked up a fresh groin injury during the Stevenage defeat, whilst Ludwig Augustinsson also hobbled off and looks unlikely to be available. John McGinn is also struggling and Leander Dendoncker will serve his one-match ban, although new signing Alex Moreno could be involved.

Leeds earn late reprieve

Leeds dramatically escaped their own FA Cup shock at Cardiff as Sonny Perkins came on to score an added-time equaliser. The Whites were booed off at half-time, trailing 2-0 in the Welsh capital to the Championship's lowest scorers, but substitute Rodrigo headed in to halve the deficit before England U19 international Perkins' late leveller earned a replay.

The dramatic finale is a lifeline for manager Jesse Marsch, whose side have now gone six matches without a win in all competitions. And the American chief wasn't impressed with his team's performance, saying, "If we learned one thing is that if you don't show up and you're not ready to play from the beginning, you're going to cause yourself problems."

Marsch was without captain Liam Cooper and fellow centre-back Robin Koch for the trip to Cardiff, along with goalkeeper Illan Meslier and midfielders Tyler Adams and Adam Forshaw. Patrick Bamford returned to training last Friday but the cup tie came too soon for his competitive comeback. However, all six are now expected to feature at Villa Park.

Villa even-money favourites

Aston Villa have enjoyed the edge over Leeds in recent Premier League meetings. The Villans are unbeaten in each of their last four head-to-head showdowns (W2-D2-L0), recording three clean sheets in that same sample. Even so, Leeds have suffered a solitary EPL loss in their past six trips to Villa Park (W3-D2-L1), going down 2-0 in February 2004.

Aston Villa 2.001/1 have moved clear of immediate danger following Steven Gerrard's sacking. The Second City club have posted W4-D1-L2 in their past seven outings, dramatically increasing their goals per-game output from 0.60 to 1.90. Villa are also nestled inside the top-10 for Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) since Gerrard's departure.

Leeds 4.1031/10 sit just two points above the drop-zone having tabled only four Premier League wins all season. The Whites have produced the majority of their best work at Elland Road and come into this clash with a solitary road success (W1-D2-L5), as well as recording a sole shutout on their travels. The visitors are ranked 16^th in the away xP ratings.

Entertaining encounter expected

Goals could well be on the agenda at Villa Park. The Premier League has posted a league-wide average of 2.85 goals per-game in 2022/23 with 55% of fixtures featuring winning Over 2.5 Goals selections. Turning that percentage hit-rate into implied odds would give us a 1.834/5 shout and that's the price available for when Aston Villa entertain Leeds.

But recent form and performances from both sides suggest the market may have underrated the prospect of an open and entertaining affair. Collectively, the duo have beaten the Over 2.5 Goals threshold in 12 (75%) of their last 16 league matches, with nine (56%) contests even producing Over 3.5 Goals. Both teams scored on 10 (63%) occasions.

During that same sample, the two teams have found the back of the net in all bar of those 16 fixtures, and recording a paltry tally of three clean sheets. With that in-mind, I'm quite happy to support another goal-filled encounter with Over 2.5 Goals appealing at 1.834/5.

For those looking for a bigger-priced offering, backing Aston Villa to win, Both Teams To Score and a Goal Scored In Both Halves gives punters an attractive 3.9029/10 option via the Bet Builder.