English Premier League Tips

Aston Villa v Everton: Oppose goals in early kick-off

Steven Gerrard - Aston Villa
Steven Gerrard was unimpressed by Aston Villa's opening day defeat

"Neither side managed to get on the scoresheet on matchday one with the duo each encountering their own issues"

After opening day defeats Aston Villa and Everton will be desperate to win Saturday's early kickoff. Mark O'Haire shares his best bet.

Gerrard disappointed by Villa display

Aston Villa boss Steven Gerrard claimed his side's quality in the final third was "miles off" after a 2-0 defeat at newly-promoted Bournemouth in last Saturday's season opener. Despite Villa's dominance on the ball, they failed to produce any meaningful opportunities or openings as Bournemouth's defence enjoyed a relatively comfortable afternoon.

Gerrard's side were punished for their lack of creativity and quality in possession when Kieffer Moore doubled Bournemouth's lead on the 80th minute, after Jefferson Lerma had given the Cherries an early advantage inside the first three minutes of the game.

"We've conceded two poor goals from a set-piece point of view, but the easy thing to do is to put all the focus on them two moments. We've had 90 minutes and we haven't created enough. The stats will show us having large parts of control of possession and getting to the right areas of the pitch, but our quality in the final third today was miles off."

Indeed, Villa controlled 66% of the ball against Bournemouth but recorded just two shots on-target, returning an Expected Goals (xG) output of just 0.66. Emi Buendia and Ollie Watkins are hoping to earn recalls ahead of the Villa Park showdown.

Lampard frustrated by Everton loss

Everton manager Frank Lampard admitted he was 'frustrated' following the Toffees' narrow 1-0 defeat to Chelsea at Goodison Park last weekend, insisting that his side were "unlucky not to get a point". The Merseysiders defended well throughout the match but Jorginho's penalty on the stroke of half-time proved enough to earn the visitors all three points.

Although disappointed with the result, Lampard felt there were plenty of positives to take from the performance. He said: "Frustrated, but not in terms of our performance. We never let Chelsea play apart from one moment. I thought the penalty was the only difference. It was a tiny mistake from us, and it cost us the game. I felt a draw would be a fair result."

Lampard was particularly pleased with the role Anthony Gordon played in attack alongside Demarai Gray and new signing Dwight McNeil. The winger was entrusted to play as a striker following the injury sustained by star man Dominic Calvert-Lewin, although Salomon Rondon's return from suspension should give Everton another option up top here.

Elsewhere, new signings Conor Coady and midfielder Amadou Onana could slot straight into the starting XI with captain Seamus Coleman also expected to be available again for selection. The Toffees saw first-choice defenders Ben Godfrey and Yerry Mina suffer injuries against Chelsea with both now sidelined for the foreseeable.

Villa unattractive odds-on favourites

Since returning to the Premier League in 2019, Aston Villa are unbeaten in all six of their Premier League meetings against Everton (W4-D2-L0), including doing the double over the Toffees in 2021/22. During the three-season sequence, the Villans have also kept their sheets clean in each of the three Villa Park encounters (W2-D1-L0).

Aston Villa 1.875/6 suffered a shock opening day loss at Bournemouth and the expectation is now on the hosts after an ordinary end to last term. Steven Gerrard's group concluded the campaign with two triumphs from 11 and come into this contest having registered only two Premier League victories from 10 this calendar year (W2-D2-L4).

No Premier League team earned fewer points on the road than Everton (who are 4.94/1 to win on Saturday) last season. The Toffees tabled just two wins on their travels (their worst return since 2004) - losing on 13 occasions - never before have the Blues performed as poorly away. However, the Merseysiders are unbeaten in their first away league game in each of the last 11 seasons.

Goals could be in short supply

Neither side managed to get on the scoresheet on matchday one with the duo each encountering their own issues. Steven Gerrard doesn't seem to have landed on his best system for Aston Villa and the disjointed nature of their attacking performance against Bournemouth is a reasonable reason for concern for odds-on backers.

There were more positives for Everton to take despite their defeat to Chelsea. But the Toffees are enduring a mounting injury crisis and continue to suffer from a lack of available attacking options and ability in forward areas. Meanwhile, the visitors have scored more than a solitary strike in only four of their previous 19 away Premier League outings.

With scorching weather scheduled for Birmingham from midday on Saturday, the conditions don't seem to suit a high-tempo, or high-scoring shootout at Villa Park, and therefore the Under 2.5 Goals line at 1.9110/11 has to come into consideration.

Earn a £5 free bet

Punters can pick up a £5 free bet after placing a £5 Bet Builder on Saturday's early kick-off and there's an intriguing alternative option available below -

Back Aston Villa double chance, BTTS - No, & John McGinn 1+ Shot on target

5.4

The case for a low-scoring contest has already been made, and it's difficult to support Everton in their current guise, particularly on the road. And McGinn appears slightly undervalued in the market for an attempt on-target - the marauding Scot isn't afraid to shoot on-sight and fired in three efforts during the defeat to Bournemouth last week.

Mark's 2022/23 Profit/Loss

Staked: 5 pts

Returned: 3.75 pts

P/L: -1.25 pts

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Mark O'Haire avatar

Mark O'Haire

Long-standing betting.betfair tipster and member of the award-winning podcast, Football... Only Bettor.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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