English Premier League Tips

Aston Villa v Chelsea Tips: Another Blues win to nil at 21/10 could be on

  • Jamie Pacheco
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4 min read
Graham Potter
Graham Potter has already made Chelsea's defence much meaner

With Chelsea much-improved in defence these last few weeks and looking too strong for Villa, an away win to nil looks the game's best, says Jamie Pacheco...

  • Chelsea have 4 clean sheets in last 4 matches
  • Blues have won six of their last eight against Villa
  • Chelsea win to nil at 2/1 is stand-out bet


Villains going through improved spell

Sixteenth place in the table doesn't look particularly great but there's certainly been improvement over the past few weeks.

Opta point out that they're now unbeaten in four Premier League games (three draws and a win) which is their best run since Steven Gerrard took over.

Thy should be ok in terms of avoiding relegation as odds of 7.613/2 suggest but the appointment of Gerrard was surely to ensure they improved and were in the Top 10 of the table rather than involved in relegation dogfights.

Last time out they secured a credible 1-1 draw away at Nottingham Forest thanks to a superb effort from skipper-on-the-day Ashley Young. An unlikely scorer indeed but goals have been hard to come by for Villa.

No-one has scored more than one goal for them in the league this season and the likes of Ollie Watkins, Emiliano Buendia and Danny Ings will be pretty disappointed with that return.

1280 Danny Ings England 2020.jpg

The Fantasy Football numbers of Leon Bailey may not suggest he's a man in form but his 11 chances created and 77 carries for his side show he's been more dangerous and effective than his raw numbers imply. He may sit this one out with a muscle injury.

Improvement already under Potter

The sacking of Thomas Tuchel may have come as a surprise to many but few thought Graham Poter wasn't a suitable replacement.

So it's proved. They've won both their league games since Potter took over and look a better side already.

Mason Mount, for example, who looked a bit flat under Tuchel, had arguably his best league game of the season last week and contributed with two assists.

Another interesting detail has been that Potter has so far gone with Kepa Arrizabalaga rather than Edouard Mendy in goal. Mendy was injured when Potter first arrived but recovered since, yet Kepa continues to play.

Another one handed a lifeline is Christian Pulisic, who made just his second start of the season in the league and duly popped up with a goal in the 3-0 win over Wolves.

If Potter can keep everyone happy and rotate his squad well then a Top 3 finish is by no means out of the question.

Chelsea clean sheet a real posisbility

At 1.75/7 on the Exchange you can back Chelsea to win. That looks about right, all things considered: strength of the teams, position in the league and Chelsea's strong record in this fixture.

The Blues have won six of their last eight against them and Villa have beaten them just once in their last 10 attempts (on the last day of the 2020-21 season with little to play for).

A far better alternative is to back Chelsea to win to nil.

Since Potter took over, three of the four wins he's secured (two in Europe, two in the league) were without conceding, proof that they've already made great progress under him in defence.

And given Villa's poor scoring record of just seven in nine matches and no player scoring more than once, you can see why the hosts may struggle to get one here.

Tyrone Mings 1280.jpg

It's 2/1 on the Sportsbook that Chelsea win to nil and that looks a very decent price.

Back Chelsea to win to nil @

3.0

Chelsea options on the 'score or assist' market

Betfair Sportsbook's 'to score or assist' market is an interesting one.

Ignoring the Villa players here because we think they may not score at all, there are a couple of Chelsea ones who may be worth a look.

Mount (7/5) is yet to score in the league this season but he's too good a player for that to continue and is fresh from two assists last week, as mentioned.

GerrardVilla1280.jpg

Pulisic is another (13/10) who could make an impact here after his goal last week and being one who tends to cash in when in form.

Alternatively, you can keep it simple and just go with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (10/11).

He's scored in the one match he's started in he league so far. But he's more likely to score than assist a goal so in his case, you might be better of trying to get 2.56/4 or better on the Exchange that he just scores.

By the way, with Potter rotating his squad, in all cases you should wait for the starting line-ups here before taking the plunge.

All those mentioned are decent prices here, but only if they start rather than play a cameo off the bench.

A Bet Builder worth a second look

Across their last four matches in all competitions, Chelsea have been 1-0 up at the break in two of them and it would be no surprise if they made that three.

A first-half goal from an in-form side looking to play on the front foot would come as no surprise so the 11/4 on a 1-0 lead for the Blues at half-time is certainly worth a look.

Combine that with the goal/assist bet on Mount (7/5) and the Bet Builder comes to a tasty 7.72.

JAMIE'S 2022/23 PREMIER LEAGUE P AND L

Pts wagered 3 Pts returned: 2 P and :-1 pts

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