Aston Villa v Chelsea: Back Blues to edge it & a 10/1 Bet Builder worth a look

• Back Blues to dig out Villa Park victory at 5/23.50

• Big 10/111.00 Villa Bet Builder an option for Betfair promotion

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Listen to Football...Only Bettor Premier League matchday 29 preview

Click here for Aston Villa v Chelsea odds
Wednesday 4 March, 19:30 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports

It's a big game in the Champions League race this one with these two sides both struggling for results the last couple of weeks - particularly Aston Villa who've dropped from title outsiders to only top-four hopefuls after one win in five.

Losing at Wolves last time out was bad, but even more of a worry for Unai Emery is their home form with just one win in four at a previously inpenetrable Villa Park, scoring just two goals in those outings as well. 

And with just five goals scored in eight league games it's clear where Villa's problems are and why they're 9/52.80 underdogs at home.

As Liam Rosenior's Chelsea were the better side at Arsenal when they had 11 men on the field so despite a couple of dodgy draws at Stamford Bridge they're 29/202.45 favourites on the road here.

Villa's first goal stats are fascinating, as only Arsenal have won more points when scoring first, but no team has won more games after going behind than Villa - but they may struggle to break down this Chelsea defence at full strength.

Rosenior's regimented backline gave Arsenal prescious little in open play, and with 18 first-half clean sheets this season and a clear game plan I wouldn't expect fireworks from the start here. The 0-0 at half-time is 12/53.40 and well on the radar.

Villa have had two extra days rest and have home advantage so hold all the cards, but Chelsea have looked well drilled away to me and right now are more suited to playing on the road - including looking supremely dangerous at set plays even against corner experts Arsenal.

Don't expect too many goals given it's a midweek and how Chelsea will set up, plus a combined 40 of their 56 league games played between them have gone under 3.5 goals. 

But just going on watching them both recently Villa may just struggle to get enough joy from the visiting defence to get the result - so although I was hovering over the draw at 5/23.50 I think the Blues can pinch it.

Back 3/14.00 Fernandez double for Bet Builder offer

Ollie Watkins got both goals in the reverse fixture coming off the bench and is 7/42.75 anytime scorer but with just one goal in 11 he's not exactly in great form and Chelsea haven't been leaving much room in behind of late.

Maybe Tammy Abraham will see more time here as he's got two in three and is the only Villa player to score in their last four games - he's 15/82.88 to score against his former club and the only forward at the club with any real form. 

For me, Joao Pedro's the best attacker in this game so if he starts again after putting a shift in at Arsenal he'd be my anytime goalscorer pick at 15/82.88 - he scored in the reverse fixture and have seven goals in his past 10 games.

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But since this could be another scrappy game and since Betfair have a Bet £10 Get £10 offer on Accas and Bet Builders, there's a couple of player props bets I'd rather roll with - starting with a player focus on Enzo Fernandez. 

He's been impressive of late and loves to show up on the stat sheet, six goals, 14 shots on target, 14 fouls conceded and 20 fouls won across his last 16 games. The 7/52.40 on him being fouled 2+ times has landed four times in that spell and also in the reverse fixture, while the 4/51.80 on just 1+ shot on target is a great Bet Builder leg after landing in seven of his past eight starts.

A 10/111.00 Villa treble to use as Bet Builder option

We're not done just yet though as I like another Bet Builder combo this time involving Villa's two biggest foulers in Matty Cash and Morgan Rogers - both have 35 Premier League fouls against their names and will be in the thick o thr scrap against a combative Chelsea side.

Rogers is 6/52.20 for 2+ fouls, which he's managed in eight games at Villa Park this season, while Cash is 11/102.11 for the same 2+ fouls and with 10 fouls in his past eight home games he's another top candidate at a decent price.

It's 11/43.75 for that double, but we can give it a huge boost by adding Ollie Wtakins at 9/52.80 for 2+ shots on target in the hope he'll have another big day against the Blues - after hitting the target four times in just 33 minutes at Stamford Bridge.

He's had multiple shots on target in two games since and he's got that quick movement that even in a packed box could get him half a yard to get an attempt away, even if just half chances - so although a goal could be hard to come by he could test out Robert Sanchez.

Now read the rest of the week's football match previews & tips from out experts