Arsenal v Tottenham: Spurs can keep it close in Gabriel's absence while VdV appeals at 17/1

• Spurs' 'underdog mentality' can stand them in good stead

• Van de Ven has scored six goals already this season

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Arsenal v Tottenham
Sunday 23 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

Gunners are gonna miss Gabriel 

The 198th North London derby is a fantastic betting heat to analyse with lots of pro-Tottenham based angles to exploit across markets which are skewed far too much in the favour of Arsenal.

The injury to Gabriel is likely to be a bigger problem for Mikel Arteta than the market is showcasing. Losing him, even temporarily, is a blow. Arsenal's defensive structure and confidence is likely to wobble, especially under pressure without their dominant force at the heart of their epic defence.

There's been no official word from Arsenal on the injury Gabriel sustained on Brazil duty, although reports say he could be out for at least a month, maybe two.

Since September 2020 in the Premier League, Arsenal's win percentage drops from 64 per cent to 40 per cent when Gabriel is missing and they concede 0.2 more goals per 90 without the big Brazilian. If you only concentrate on recent data then the numbers scream even louder. Arsenal have won just three of their nine Premier League games without Gabriel, beating Newcastle, Ipswich and Southampton.

And, in that time Arsenal have dropped nine points from winning positions. It's very un-Arsenal like.

Gabriel is the lynchpin of this Arsenal defence - their high line, their aerial insurance policy and their most physical presence in the back four. Without him, Arsenal may have a problem in the next few weeks if his abductor injury is as bad as early reports suggest.

Underdog mentality suits Frank's Spurs

Tottenham under Thomas Frank will enjoy this derby day assignment.

Few managers in the league coach 'underdog football' as effectively as the former Brentford boss. Frank's Brentford side made a habit of punishing big teams. The smart money says he'll try to copy-paste that blueprint here: frustrate, pounce, exploit the absence of Arsenal's defensive enforcer from both open play and set pieces. Spurs have the quality to make a big move in the game - like they did away at Manchester City and in the Super Cup vs PSG.

The betting is obviously trending towards Arsenal with a home win off at 1.434/9 - that's a dangerous price to take based on the aforementioned factors on Gabriel and Spurs potentially suiting this style of game.

Arsenal can and still probably will win, of course, but Tottenham suddenly have a real foothold in the matchup, and the market doesn't quite reflect it.

I'm happy to invest in Tottenham +1.25 on the Asian Handicap market on the Betfair Exchange at 1.9520/21, meaning we'll still make a 50 per cent profit if Arsenal win by one but cop the lot if Spurs avoid defeat.

Hey Micky, you're so fine at 17/1

In a Premier League now that is increasingly defined by fine margins, the set piece battle in this game is a fascinating sideshow. Arsenal have scored the most from corners this season (8) but Spurs aren't far behind them in second (6).

Spurs will fancy their chances of giving Arsenal a taste of their own medicine from set piece situations such is the focus and expertise Frank teams' carry in that part of the game.

Arsenal's defensive structure at dead-ball situations is built, almost obsessively, around Gabriel's dual superpowers: dominating the first contact and showing great authority when balls are aimed his direction. Thus is an area Frank and Spurs can exploit.

And Tottenham, with Micky van de Ven at full throttle when it comes to attacking set pieces, will have a plan to expose the Gunners.

Van de Ven has six goals in all competitions this season - no centre-back has scored more across Europe's major leagues.

Frank is working wonders with him in terms of his ability to attack set pieces.

But the markets have yet to really adjust to the Dutchman's increased threat. Betfair Sportsbook has Van de Ven available at 17/118.00 to score in the derby. If I was a layer, there's no way I'd be comfortable standing that price, so that's always a great sign that we're onto a lovely bet here.

What are the Matchday 12 fixtures?

Saturday 22 November

- Burnley v Chelsea (12:30, live on TNT Sports)
- Bournemouth v West Ham (15:00)
- Brighton v Brentford (15:00)
- Fulham v Sunderland (15:00)
- Liverpool v Nottm Forest (15:00)
- Wolves v Crystal Palace (15:00)
- Newcastle v Manchester City (17:30, live on Sky Sports)

Sunday 23 November

- Leeds v Aston Villa (14:00, live on Sky Sports)
- Arsenal v Tottenham (16:30, live on Sky Sports)

Monday 24 November

- Manchester United v Everton (20:00, live on Sky Sports)

Now read Lewis on why Arsenal are a lay in the Premier League title winner betting