Arsenal v Liverpool: Jesus to be key figure in Emirates draw

Gunners looking for statement win

Manchester City are already being crowned as champions again and yet the table after the latest round of Premier League games showed Arsenal as the leaders.

The Gunners have reached that position thanks to a 100% home record and three wins from four on the road. A haul of 21 points from a possible 24 is superb.

Arsenal's first three wins at the Emirates were expected: 4-2 v Leicester, 2-1 v Fulham and 2-1 v Aston Villa.

The outcome seemed less certain for their north London derby against Spurs but, once more, Mikel Arteta's men ran out deserved 3-1 winners.

They followed that with another comfortable home triumph over Bodo Glimt in the Europa League on Thursday night.

But now comes the big test: the visit of Liverpool, a team they've struggled horribly against in recent seasons.

Reds continue to stutter

Most of Liverpool's unexpected problems this season have come on the road but more frailities in confidence were exposed in last weekend's 3-3 home draw with Brighton.

The Reds were 2-0 down and it could have been much worse. Even after a fightback to lead 3-2 they looked uncertain and Brighton claimed a deserved equaliser.

A calming 2-0 win over Rangers in the Champions League quietened the critics temporarily although, in truth, that game taught us little. Rangers were negative for most of the game and hardly laid a glove on Jurgen Klopp's side.

The interesting discussion point from that game was Liverpool's tactical tweak to a 4-2-3-1 formation. It worked at home to Rangers but dare Klopp go that attacking for an away trip to the leaders?

Liverpool's three away games so far in the Premier League have produced a 2-2 draw at Fulham when they trailed twice, a 2-1 loss to Manchester United and a 0-0 derby draw at Everton.

Adding to that was a 4-1 hammering at Napoli although the Italians are clearly a force having smashed Ajax 6-1 on Tuesday night.

But ninth place for a team everyone expected to be Manchester City's only serious rivals? It's clearly not good enough and Liverpool still look vulnerable.

Market can't decide on favourite

It's very rare to find the Gunners trading as favourites in this fixture but they were on first show. It's fluctuated back and forth since and is now virtually a pick 'em. At the time of writing (Friday night) Arsenal are 2.77/4, Liverpool 2.6813/8 and The Draw 3.8514/5.

On the evidence of this season, the Gunners look a decent bet but every Arsenal fan will be aware of their team's head-to-head record against the Merseysiders.

In short, it's dreadful. Liverpool have won nine and drawn four of the last 14 Premier League encounters, Arsenal's one win a slightly fortunate 2-1 success in July 2020 when Klopp's men had already sewn up the title and twice lost concentration in defence.

In fact, it's even worse if you look back to last season's Carabao Cup semi-final when Liverpool won the away leg 2-0. Add in that and the aggregate score in the last three meetings at the Emirates is Arsenal 0-7 Liverpool.

A win for either would be huge but given the contrasting pulls of current form and head-to-head history, I'm going to side with The Draw - the biggest price of the three outcomes.

It's hard to see it being 0-0 so I'd be looking at 1-1 at 8.615/2 and 2-2 at 13.012/1.

In-running opportunity on slow starting Reds

It's certainly worth mentioning the in-running angle in this game.

Liverpool have conceded the first goal in nine of their last 11 Premier League matches, but have only gone on to lose one of those (1-2 vs Manchester United in August).

In other words, if they fall behind again, a lay of Arsenal is more than justified.

Elsewhere, the basic Both teams to Score price is predictably short at just 1.558/15 but anyone who fancies a clean sheet will be attracted by the 'No' option at 2.6813/8.

Jesus can star on Bet builder

This is a Betfair "Bet 5 Get 5" game which means punters get a £5 free bet when placing a £5 bet on Bet Builders.

So, let's try and find a way in and, with goals expected, the scorer markets look the obvious place.

Liverpool have plenty of players with good records in this fixture. Roberto Firmino has netted five times in the Premier League this season and has nine top-flight goals against Arsenal. Diogo Jota has struck six times in eight PL games when lining up against the Gunners. Mo Salah has scored seven times against Arteta's men and will be on penalty duties again.

But is this the game when Darwin Nunez makes his mark? He scored on his last trip to London - away to Fulham - and had a bunch of chances against Rangers so it looks a matter of time before he sticks one away again.

Hold that thought.

One other interesting market is the 'Player To Score Or Be Shown A Card' and the one I like is Gabriel Jesus at Evens.

The reasoning is simple. Such a bet has landed in seven of his eight Premier League games this season so basically Jesus either finds the net or picks up a booking.

He's got a good scoring record against Liverpool too - four goals in eight games - so it's easy to see him being in the thick of the action.

So I'll go with a trio of Bet Builders.

First, Darwin Nunez to score and Gabriel Jesus to score or be booked at 5.14/1. Second, Gabriel Jesus to score or be booked and a Draw at 7.413/2. And finally, a combination of all three: Darwin Nunez to score, Gabriel Jesus to score or be booked and a Draw at around 18.017/1.

Opta stat

Arsenal are on a run of 13 consecutive Premier League matches without a clean sheet against Liverpool, conceding 39 goals in those games. They have only had one longer run against an opponent without a clean sheet in the competition: 14 versus Man City (ongoing).