Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 7/1 draw in Arsenal v Liverpool

Arsenal could find themselves back in second place by the time they kick off on Sunday, and they just so happen to be up against the team who finished in that exact spot last season.

Mikel Arteta's side sit top of the pile after eight games, with a victory in the north London derby cementing their status as real contenders for a top four spot if not more. Recent seasons have seen the Gunners struggle against their fellow high-flyers at times, though, and the visit of Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool will be another serious test.

Win and they stay top ahead of what look - on paper at least - like a more welcoming run of games. Lose and they could find themselves playing catch-up against Manchester City for the rest of the season, and they only need to ask Liverpool to find out how tough that can be.

Klopp on top

Success in this fixture has come in waves, but it is Liverpool who have had the upper hand of late. The last 14 meetings have brought just one victory for Arsenal, and that came at the end of the 2019-20 season when the visitors had already wrapped up the title.

The two teams met four times last season - twice in the league and over two legs in the EFL Cup semi-finals - with Arsenal failing to score in any of the matches. Liverpool completed a league double, 4-0 at Anfield and 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium, with second-half goals from Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino settling the game in their favour.

Jota also scored in the Anfield league game, and has an enviable record against the London side. In eight league games against the Gunners for Liverpool and Wolves, he has scored six goals, so the match comes at a good time for a man who has scored for Portugal this season but has yet to open his club account.

Leaky at the back

Plenty has been made of Liverpool's defensive frailty of late, and their 2-0 victory over Rangers in the Champions League on Tuesday was just their third shut-out of the season.

The others have both been in the league, against Bournemouth and Everton, but a 3-3 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion last time out means they have conceded more goals (nine) in seven games in the competition than in their first 10 matches last term.

A tendency to concede first has been an issue, but it has been a bigger issue this season than last. The Reds have conceded first in nine of their last 11 league games, but have lost only one of those (against Manchester United this term), though three score draws this season have also held them back.

Arsenal have conceded first in just three of their last 11. However, they went on to lose two of those three - this season's 3-1 loss to Manchester United and the 2-0 reverse at Newcastle back in May.

Brazil v Brazil

Just like Jota, Firmino's goal in the corresponding game against Arsenal wasn't his first against the club either. Indeed, he has scored nine league goals against the Gunners, more than against any other Premier League club, though only one of those has come in the last three seasons.

The former Hoffenheim man has five goals to his name this season, the same number he notched in the league in the entirety of the 2021-22 campaign, including a double in the 9-0 victory over Bournemouth and two more in the Reds' last game. If you're wondering when Firmino last had five Premier League goals by early October, we'll save you some time - it has never happened before.

Another man with five league goals is Firmino's compatriot and Arsenal's marquee summer signing Gabriel Jesus. The pair could find themselves fighting for one place in Brazil's World Cup squad, and the Gunners man also has an impressive record in this fixture to protect and potentially extend.

Jesus has four goals and two assists in eight games against Liverpool, with the goals all coming in home matches. However, the caveat is all of those games came for Manchester City with a Manchester City supply line.

Arsenal v Liverpool prediction

Liverpool have been an unpredictable side this season, and Sunday's result will depend on which version of them shows up, as much of a cop-out as that sounds. The extra rest could also benefit the visitors, with Klopp's men enjoying two extra days of preparation time as their hosts take on Bodo/Glimt on Thursday evening.

Arsenal are still 100% at home, though, with a seven-game winning streak (dating back to last season) representing their longest winning run at the Emirates Stadium since the days of Unai Emery.

Three points here will have them feeling they can beat that 10-game streak, but Liverpool - for all their dropped points - have only lost once in eight league games.

This fixture is a Bet 5 Get match which means if you place a £5 Bet Builder on the match you can get a free £5 bet upon settling.

We like the look of both teams to score, with Gabriel Jesus an anytime goalscorer and Roberto Firmino to score or assist, at 5.72118/25.