Crystal Palace v Everton Premier League Tips: Back Everton double chance at [17/20]

• Crystal Palace odds-on despite only winning seven games all season

• Everton avoided defeat in 15 of their 24 games

• David Moyes lost just one of five since returning to Merseyside

• Read all about our new Build Ups player-based betting here

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

Betfair Football Superboost

Back Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak to each have one or more shots on target when Manchester City host Newcastle on Saturday at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00, from 4/71.57.

The star strikers have registered 18 shots on target combined in their last five Premier League games. Just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now

Crystal Palace v Everton
Saturday February 15, 17:30
Live on SkySports

Ismaila Sarr Impact

It's been a tale of two halves for both of these sides this season. Crystal Palace began the season with no wins and three draws in their first six games following the €60M sale of Michael Olise to Bayern Munich, to leave themselves 18th and in the relegation zone. Despite only starting 14 matches and making five substitute appearances last season, Olise scored 10 goals and registered six assists as he arguably became the most important part of the team playing off the right-hand side. Then came the introduction of Ismaila Sarr as a starter as Olise's replacement on the 5th October and Palace haven't looked back. They've collected the joint seventh most points across 18 games since then (W7 D6 L5), the same amount as Manchester City and only three fewer than Chelsea. And with seven goal involvements made up of four goals and three assists, only Jean-Philippe Mateta has more, proving Sarr's worth to this Crystal Palace team. Sarr's previous two campaigns in the Premier League at Watford only saw him hit five goals in both seasons so he looks well on the way to surpassing that.

Moyes' Magic

When David Moyes was appointed Everton manager again on the 11th January, they were sixteenth in the league, just one point clear of the relegation zone, having only won three of 19 games all season. They had the lowest expected goals for with 18.33 (0.96 per-game), the second lowest shots-on-target with 63 (3.32 per-game) and had only scored 15 goals (0.79 per-game - their lowest average in 13 seasons). Fast forward a month and all looks a lot rosier now.

They have won three of Moyes' five league games - the same amount as Sean Dyche won in 19 - to take them to 10 points clear of the relegation zone. They've created 8.69 xG (1.74 per-game), had 20 shots-on-target (4.0 per-game) and scored 10 goals (2.0 per-game). They've collected the third most points and the second most expected points in the league since he arrived to prove it's no fluke (albeit having played a game more than everyone else except Liverpool).

Odds-on Palace?

Looking at the match odds here they look a little skewed in the home sides favour. Crystal Palace are 4/51.80 yet looking at the season as a whole, they've only won seven of 24 games (29%) and Everton have only lost nine of 24 games (38%). It doesn't feel like Palace should have a 56% chance of winning as the odds suggest. Add in that Everton are unbeaten in the previous eight meetings with Crystal Palace and it really seems like the away side are being underestimated. Under 2.5 goals is 8/131.61 suggesting a tight game, yet Palace are still odds on. Backing Everton to avoid defeat looks the way to go at 17/201.85. Across both team's matches combined, this bet would have won in 32 of 48 games this season - a healthy strike rate of 67%.

Now read Mark's tips for the Saturday 3pm KOs

Column P/L 2024/25