New Manager Bounce: Is it real and can bettors profit?

Chelsea's sacking of Thomas Tuchel was unceremonious and, while they hope that Graham Potter can sprinkle some of his magic on their underperforming team, it's a good time to ask if the new manager bounce is real.

The theory behind appointing a new manager is that it will improve the team's performances and results. But is there any evidence that this is the case? More importantly, if you're betting or trading on Betfair, how can you profit from it?

Season of goodwill but not for managers

Tuchel's sacking is unusual, in that the most popular time to sack your manager, is approaching Christmas.

Roughly one third of sackings take place around the season of 'joy and goodwill'.

There is some logic in this. When a team is in trouble, the answer appears to be to bring in a new boss and shake up the team and perhaps bring in some new players in the January transfer window. But does it work?

Over the last 20 years or so, I've gathered data on manager appointments and there is a pattern. Overall, there is a positive effect from sacking a manager.

On average, the teams I studied benefited from booting out the boss. It tended to be quite slight overall though and much depends on your position in the league and the purpose behind the sacking.

Probably the best recent example I can give was Newcastle's relegation battle of last year. Out went Steve Bruce, in came Eddie Howe with the club's new owners promising extra funds for recruitment, and 1.558/15 to lay Newcastle for relegation just looked an incredible bargain.

Whether you just laid relegation at this price or opted to trade out, it was one of the best opportunities from last year.

Why do teams perform better under new managers?

If a team is struggling, then appointing a popular manager tends to lift morale. A new appointment can fire up players. That's what we found in the data; performance typically gets an immediate boost.

Academic studies generally back this up and show that it is the psychology of a fresh face and approach, builds confidence back into a team. Players will also up their game to assure a regular place in the team.

However, there is a caveat. The effect wears off over time as the team gets settled again and results determine the trajectory from there. A struggling team is likely to get a boost, but it may only be short term.

Blues to get immediate boost

If you are looking at the likely effect on Chelsea, you would expect a short-term boost.

With the Manchester City odds-on in the Premier League winner market, you will most likely find value in other outright markets, such as the top four finish, where an immediate uptick in results could see Chelsea shorten from their current 2.186/5 .

Individual matches immediately after this appointment should see better performances and create some opportunity for good value prices.

On the flip side, the resignation of a popular manager can have the opposite effect on a team. The departure of a beloved manager can usher in a period of underperformance.

It's very difficult to fill the boots of somebody who was not only popular, but successful, so it makes sense to bet against teams in this position. Sorry Brighton fans, but the departure of Potter has left big boots to fill.

New manager bounce - summary

The new manager effect will impact a team's performance. But that effect is strongest immediately after an appointment.

Making a change at a key moment in season can have a significant impact on results, but it will be less pronounced earlier in the season as it will have less impact on long term results.

Teams that lose popular managers are worth betting against unless they can find a replacement of a similar calibre.