In an astonishing match at Wembley last year, Stoke thumped Bolton 5-0. Looking at their fortunes this season, it occurs to me that Bolton's problems might have started in that extraordinary FA Cup semi-final.
It was all looking promising for the Trotters under Owen Coyle. Sam Allardyce did a terrific job at the Reebok, taking the team from the foot of the second tier to the knockout stages of what was then the UEFA Cup. Fantastic, although some complained about Big Sam's brash style of football. Following his exit, and ill-fated periods under Sammy Lee and Gary Megson, Owen Coyle, one of Britain's most promising young(ish) bosses came in and got them climbing the table with an attractive brand of football.
That all seems a long time ago now and Bolton are 1.412/5 favourites to go down after Sunday's trip to the Britannia Stadium. I've backed Manchester City to beat Queens Park Rangers so, by my reckoning, Bolton have their destiny in their own hands. What's more, they're playing a team that, 14th in the table, have little to play for. So can they pull of an upset and survive?
Match Odds
Unfortunately for Bolton, Tony Pulis isn't the type of boss who struggles to motivate his players. The beach maybe looming for Peter Crouch and co. but, although Stoke lost at QPR last weekend, they recently held both Arsenal and Manchester City at the Britannia. The last team to get an away win in the Potteries was Valencia.
Bolton's best chance for survival arose last weekend when they surrendered a two goal lead at home to West Brom. Ouch. On that form, they deserve to go down and I have a horrible feeling that result will come back to haunt them. Opta remind us that 19 of Bolton's 35 points have been earned on the road and Stoke are winless in ten. However, while I think the visitors can get a draw, I expect the win they need to elude them.
Under 2.5 goals
Those draws against Arsenal and Manchester City, which I mention above, both ended 1-1. Only three of the last ten matches at the Britannia have produced more than three goals and, although Ivan Klasnic has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Stoke, I have little faith in the Bolton attack.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.711/4
Back 1-1 @ 7.87/1
Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.0811/10
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