Wales v Belgium: Dragons can claim draw in Cardiff

Dave Tindall
10 June 2022
4:00 min read

Wales boss Robert Page

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Wales have suffered narrow defeats in their two Nations League games so far but can earn a point against Belgium, says Dave Tindall in his match preview...

"The Welsh obviously have some very well-known history against the Belgians having stunned them 3-1 in the quarter-finals of Euro 2016. That Hal Robson-Kanu turn and finish to make it 2-1 will forever be a thing of wonder."

1pt Wales v Belgium Draw at 3.814/5

Wales v Belgium
Saturday 11 June, 19:45
Live on Premier Player

Welsh yet to open account but still competitive

Anyone only keeping a vague eye on the Nations League - and there are probably quite a few after a long season - will think Wales aren't really bothering with it this time having achieved their long-held goal of qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1958.

Either sight of that momentous night in Cardiff, they've lost Nations League games to Poland and the Netherlands and currently prop up Group A4. But two things...

First, both defeats were suffered by narrow and late 2-1 margins. They were 1-0 up on Poland before conceding twice in the last 18 minutes while a late leveller in injury-time against the Netherlands looked to have secured a point until the Dutch found an even later winner.

Second, they played those matches with much weakened teams as boss Robert Page ensured he had his main men on the pitch for the playoff showdown with Ukraine.

Given all that, Wales have certainly been competitive and deserve respect against any opposition.

Contrasting fortunes for Belgium

It was a miserable opening night for Belgium in the Nations League when their Low Countries derby against the Netherlands turned into something of a disaster.

With 65 minutes on the clock they were 4-0 down and had lost Romelu Lukaku to injury with less than half an hour gone. Pulling back a consolation to lose 4-1 didn't stop them being booed off.

The misery continued when Robert Lewandowski put Poland in front in their second match five days later but this time Belgium responded. And in some style.

Axel Witsel levelled from distance, Kevin De Bruyne curled in a second and Brighton's Leandro Trossard helped himself to a brace. It didn't end there as Leander Dendoncker and Lois Openda fired home to give Roberto Martinez's men a thumping 6-1 win.

So which is the real Belgium? It was easy to think after the Dutch defeat that many of their English-based players were worn out but the response against Poland was a reminder of their weight of talent.

Red Devils due a draw

Here's a weird stat. Belgium have played 14 games in the relatively brief history of the Nations League and are yet to have a draw.

They've won nine and lost five and another win for Belgium in Cardiff is 1.9420/21.

Wales are 4.47/2 to take victory while that first Draw for Belgium is 3.814/5.

The Welsh obviously have some very well-known history against the Belgians having stunned them 3-1 in the quarter-finals of Euro 2016. That Hal Robson-Kanu turn and finish to make it 2-1 will forever be a thing of wonder.

Since then they've met twice in World Cup qualifying. Belgium won 3-1 at home after Harry Wilson had put Wales in front but the return match - and the most recent meeting - in November 2021 resulted in a 1-1 draw.

De Bruyne put Belgium ahead early but Kieffer Moore scored a vital equaliser, the point meaning Wales had home advantage through the playoffs and we saw how that panned out with those memorable victories over Austria and Ukraine.

While Belgium had already qualified, it was still a battling performance from Wales and I think, in front a Cardiff crowd still in celebratory mood, they can pull off a repeat.

The Netherlands only just pipped them and Belgium have only won two of their seven away games in Wales in all competitions.

And a reminder of how strong the Welsh are in Cardiff. Until that late, late Dutch winner, they were unbeaten in 19 games there.

Moore and De Bruyne could be goalscoring options

As noted, Kieffer Moore netted against Belgium back in November and after being rested for the Netherlands game, the big striker will be fresh here.

Belgium's weak point is their ageing defence and Wales will get opportunities.

But at the other end, you can chalk up a Belgian goal almost without hesitation. Why? The Red Devils have scored in each of their last 46 games since losing the 2018 World Cup semi-final to France.

De Bruyne, if he plays, has netted three times in seven appearances against Wales so looks a likely source while Michy Batshuayi has a good record in this competition and could start with Lukaku expected to sidelined still.

I quite like Both teams to Score although it's the favourite at 1.824/5 while Moore and De Bruyne to both find the net is just under 1312/1 on the Bet Builder.

Opta stat

Only Romelu Lukaku (11) and Kevin De Bruyne (8) have been involved in more UEFA Nations League goals for Belgium than Michy Batshuayi (6 - 5 goals, 1 assist), with five of those goal involvements coming in his four starts in the competition.