Football Bet of the Day: Goals at a premium in La Serena

Uruguay v Paraguay
Saturday 20:00 (Live on Premier Sports)

Mexico 1 Ecuador 2 in Rancagua last night. Ecuador broke the standoff early, Mexico eventually fired back and we get away with the money.

Over in Copa America Group B, Uruguay are a point shy of Paraguay and Argentina.

Two of the three groups' third-placed teams will qualify for the quarter-finals but, to ensure their place in the knockout stage, Uruguay must beat Paraguay in a rerun of the 2011 final in La Serena on Saturday night.

Without Luis Suarez, however, their first two matches have brought a total of just two goals (a 1-0 win and 1-0 defeat). With two Atletico Madrid centre-halves at its heart, they are much more reliable at the other end of the pitch and Under 2.5 Goals is a worthy favourite at 1.56.

Paraguay scored twice in their opening draw with Argentina, but created very few chances other than the goals and should consider themselves fortunate to have escaped with a point.

Against Jamaica - the group's poorest team - Ramon Diaz's rabble managed to score just once. Four years ago Paraguay made the Copa America final despite scoring in only two of their six matches (which included three goalless draws). In the interim, they played two competitive fixtures with Uruguay in World Cup 2014 qualifying: home and away, the results were both 1-1.

Like their opponents, Paraguay prioritise defence over attack. Uruguay's counter-attacks might eventually produce a goal and the three points coach Oscar Tabarez desperately needs but, with the opposition quite happy to play for a draw, the safest bet on this match is for it to be a low scorer.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.564/7 in Uruguay v Paraguay