Velez Sarsfield v Estudiantes
Tuesday 24 May, 23:15
The Copa Libertadores reaches a crucial stage this week with the final round of group games taking place.
In Group C, Velez Sarsfield head into their last match knowing they must win to stand a chance of moving on to the knockout stage but they will be going up against fellow Argentine side Estudiantes.
The La Plata-based visitors have already won the pool but, as local rivals, will be determined to halt their hosts' progress in nearby Buenos Aires.
The potential for things to get spicy is obvious and a look at other factors suggests we should expect cards.
For example, recent history in the fixture throws up plenty of bookings.
There have been at least six cards in the last eight meetings of the sides - over 5.5 in this renewal is offered at a tempting 5/6.
The referee appointment looks decent enough too.
Chilean Nicolas Gamboa has shown 26 cards in his five CONMEBOL appointments so far in 2022.
While I wouldn't put anyone off the straight over 5.5 cards single, a way of raising the price is to create a Bet Builder involving both teams.
Over 2.5 cards for each side takes the price to 2.77/4 and the bet can be justified.
Velez have collected 13 yellows and one red in their five Copa games so far, while Estudiantes, who had to qualify, have 25 and one respectively from their nine matches in the competition.
Essentially both sides are averaging on or close to three cards per game (remember a red counts as two in terms of this market).
Throw in the occasion and the rivalry and this bet can land for the sixth time in nine meetings between the pair.
Nathan Joyes previews this week's Copa Libertadores action